ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1500 28022023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday  Good morning, The opening of Mdex saw a 0.8% decrease due to a triple digit correction in rival bean oil. However, the correction was controlled by news of firming up basis and by lunchtime, May settled at RM 4184 -41. Despite limited supplies from Indonesia and forecasted heavy rains in Malaysia, Palm is holding tight. However, prices are already near resistance at RM 4250, making profit-taking a lucrative option. Additionally, crude oil prices are trading at 75 as inflation concerns reduce overall consumption. Although China has recovered from Covid, demand and overall consumption have not seen the expected rise. Our long-term view remains to make longs around RM 3550-3750 and shorts between RM 4250-4450. For the mid-term, one can even play within a very narrow range of RM 3850-4250. In India, offers for CPO are at 1030-1040, and we heard India priced some ROL also at 1020 for ECI. Locally, Olein prices are indicated at INR 975 with not m...

  1400 27022023 Athena Market Buzz Monday Good morning, MDEX opened 0.7% lower for most of the month and recovered a little afterward, with May closing at lunch RM 4165 -37. Exports from Malaysia are moving higher as the demand for palm oil increased in China and India due to increased temperatures and unrestricted movement of people. Indonesia, too, is utilizing more for domestic consumption, limiting the supplies. It will be important to note how much destination countries can consume palm and what will be overall February export numbers and if they show an increasing trend. Resistance of Rm 4250 is intact, and the market is coming off the highs now. At the time of writing this report, May is trading at RM 4178 -24, and as mentioned before, if the market crosses RM 4250, then it will become a sell. One can start shorting the same between Rm 4250-4450 and cover the shorts back between RM 3750-4000. For making longs, one should wait till the prices come around RM 3750 or below....

1530 23022023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon,  Mdex opened firm and by lunch April settled RM 4184 +45 and May at RM 4190 +44. Indian market is experiencing heat and so the demand for Palm oil is also heating up. We hard few vessels traded or priced of ROL between USD 1010-1020 in Chennai and west coast was looking for CPO till late evening. India also price sunflower oil yesterday but we have not heard any major trades in Bean oil. With over night strength from rival oils and Indonesia slowing down the export entire market is focusing on Malaysia and at the time of writing this report we are  trying to touch the resistance of RM 4250. April is trading at RM 4217 +78 and May at RM 4223 +77. We still expect that RM 4250 should remain a resistance now that sunflower oil which can be imported duty free in to India is only 130-150 costlier to Palm. If the resistance of RM 4250 is broken today than we would suggest our readers to be ready to short the market betwe...

1330 20022023 Athena Market Buzz Monday  Mdex opened firm and by lunch we settled may at RM 4195 +64. Post lunch palm markets managed to make a multi month high of RM 4202 but then profit taking kicked in and at the time of writing this report May is up 1% at RM 4172+41. Palm is now in a zone where our friends can actually short the market. The current jump is due to Indonesia restricting exports and Malaysia see a jump of 33% for the period of 1-20 Feb compared to 1-20th Jan 2023. Jan was a slower month any ways and Feb any was is supposed to be higher but remember this jump will be again an opportunity to sell as when Indonesia is back we will again see selling pressure. Palm markets  are a buy between RM 3550-3750 and worth going short around 4200-4250 . Sunflower oil prices have corrected a lot and CNF India offers are around USD 1180 compared to this CPO prices to India are at 1050-1055 which is just USD 125. Sunflower oil in India also does not attract any duty hence it ...

1530 16022023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Mdex opened higher and by lunch we are already trading at RM 4016 +72 for May month which at the time of writing this article is trading at RM 4080 +136 almost on the days high. Reasons for this market rally can be attributed to rumour about Indonesia changing the DMO ratio and also production issues resulting in lower end stocks. Palm is safely over RM 4000 and we would suggest our readers to exit longs. As mentioned before we are not in favour for any strong rally till end of march but jumps over RM 4200 could be used to make fresh shorts. On the other hand RM 3750 is good level to buy back shorts and to make longs one can again enter between RM 3550-3750 range. With the spread narrowing between palm and soya Indians could prefer bean oil over palm however with Inflation touching 6% for India some trade pundits are not in favour of increasing duty which is also giving some support to current prices. CNFIndia the offers have slightly incr...

1500 15022023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday  Mdex opened firm but with profit taking and resistance of RM 4000 intact we saw it correcting for April to RM 3945 -11 by lunch which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3925 -31. As mentioned before Palm is not attractive to make longs at the moment and the current levels could be used to book profits, in order to make short one could wait for prices to jump towards RM 4250 and for making longs one can target a range of RM 3550-3750 till end of march 2023. Going forward we will see more consolidation and if the macro factor remains the  same we could see palm oil retracting towards RM 3250 some where in May when Indonesia will also put pressure to export more and more palm oil. Summer month demand should normally support consumption but with India rumoured to put duties will put a cap on the rally and prices around RM 4450 should find good resistance. Exports from Malaysia are picking up and it will have its impact o...