Athena Market Buzz

1330 20022023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 



Mdex opened firm and by lunch we settled may at RM 4195 +64. Post lunch palm markets managed to make a multi month high of RM 4202 but then profit taking kicked in and at the time of writing this report May is up 1% at RM 4172+41. Palm is now in a zone where our friends can actually short the market. The current jump is due to Indonesia restricting exports and Malaysia see a jump of 33% for the period of 1-20 Feb compared to 1-20th Jan 2023. Jan was a slower month any ways and Feb any was is supposed to be higher but remember this jump will be again an opportunity to sell as when Indonesia is back we will again see selling pressure. Palm markets  are a buy between RM 3550-3750 and worth going short around 4200-4250 . Sunflower oil prices have corrected a lot and CNF India offers are around USD 1180 compared to this CPO prices to India are at 1050-1055 which is just USD 125. Sunflower oil in India also does not attract any duty hence it will be hard for palm to continue fighting for market share and prices need to correct alternatively  Indian government will have to remove TRQ on sunflower oil and impose duty on sunflower oil and Soybean oil to make palm competitive. 


CBOT is closed today and there not be any direction from Soya. Bean oil has corrected from the lows of CNF 1130 India for May to almost USD 1200 and now its not very attractive to make longs. As mentioned before we expect CBOT to correct towards 54.50 and basis to appreciate with Feb continuing to talk about interest rate hike funds may thinks of exiting the longs which could put pressure on CBOT however with robust global demand, tension between Russia- Ukraine we will see flat prices finding supports. FOR MJJ longs between 1100-1150 are excellent and for SPOT month one can buy between 1150-1200. One should not panic over all as current levels are marginally high and slight correction will make it worth making longs. Over all for the market to rally we need a strong event like shortage of Oils either by way of weather issues, or by act of war and only then we can start thinking of going into higher range till then range bound but stable market is expected.


Black Sea sunflower oil after trading a couple of times for March shipment at USD 1180-1185-1200 is again indicated at USD 1190and looking for bids. Sunflower oil has become the cheapest soft oil in India and is finally getting back the lost user base. If the prices continue to be at a discount to bean oil we could see the shipments increasing to over 2 million MT and at some point all the TRQ for duty free imports will be exhausted and oil will be imported by paying full duty. Currently most of the players are left with marginal quota but with the discount to soybean oil it can still be imported.  Ukraine continues to struggle with the war and now there are rumours that China might give weapons support to Russia could result in a wide spread implications. If a peaceful solution is not reached before summer the situation could become very dangerous hence we would suggest our readers not to shy in buying sunflower oil at a discount to bean oil and try to market the same with caution in their respective destinations. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -960 vs -1050
  • Mch -1050 vs -1200
  • MJJ -1100 vs -1250
  • BR SBO
  • Mch - vs -1200
  • Apr -1100 vs -1200
  • JJ - vs -1230
  • AS – vs -1130
  • 6 ports Europe Mar  1150 vs ??
  • AMJ   1155 vs ??
  • JAS    1170 vs ??
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 4195 (+64)
  • H 4202 / L 4137
  • Vol : 16,876
  • Oln:  
  • Mar 992.5 vs 
  • Amj 992.5 vs 985 trd 977.5-980
  • Jas 982.5 vs 977.5 trd 977.5
  • Ond 975 vs 967.5
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 960 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 717.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 4170
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Mar 240 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1035
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 970
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1400
  • Sbo :  closed
  • Dce :  
  • May 8248 (+130)
  • Sep 8102 (+106)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications only March 1040 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB Indications only March 1030 vs —
  • Spain indicated for March Shipment at USD 1180 vs —
  • Italy indicated March at USD 1175 vs—
  • CIF Lw India indicated at USD 1190 for March vs —
  • Turkey after trading Friday at USD 1080 is now indicated around there only 
  • Currency INR 82.63, RM 4.42, Euro 1.06 and Rub 74.08





Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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