AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Afternoon,


India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with further offers around the same levels. FOB black Sea IZMAIL port is indicted as low as USD 720 with buyers looking to pay USD 700. Russian drone attacks have destroyed some grains but the impact is not much with the sunflower oil and we can expect it to continue to trade at current levels. As mentioned before Prices of sunflower oil below 900 CIF India should make a lot of sense specially when the rival soybean oil is already offered over USD 1010 taking the spread once again to over USD 150 in favour of sunflower oil. It makes a lot of sense to own this spread and many players can just buy sunflower oil and sell the bean oil. Demand at ports like China , Middle East and Europe is slow which will direct more cargo towards India and we can safely start taking advantage of lower prices. We would suggest our readers now to look at making longs for OND when prices correct below USD 850 but refrain from making longs for JFM. Locally the oil is trading just around replacement parity which should keep the imports healthy. 


CBOT Bean oil fantastically rose to settle up 183 points for Oct at 62.84 and up 165 points for Dec at 61.72 and for the first time we have not seen basis adjusting to keep flat prices unchanged. Basis remain unchanged and this helped flat price rally about 40-45 for near by months. At the time of writing this report we do see some corrections of 0.6% but mostly the same will be bought as there is not much crush available. India is getting good rains now for the soy growing region and it will give some relief to the standing crops however it will still be below last years number. Local seeds may trade closer to MSP and it may be a tough first 4 months for the crush. Degum soybean oil is offered for India at USD 1010 and once again it has over priced itself. Unfortunately the fundamentals of bean oil are totally different to other oils but the rally will be capped due to sunflower oil. Bean oil is trading at INR 79,000 plus duty in local markets and we have not seen any aggressive buying so far. We will repeat that there is potential for CBOT to drift towards 57.50 with basis improving and any rally in board will not see basis correcting equally thus keeping flat prices more or less stable. 


MDEX opened higher and by lunch we saw prices for Nov settling at RM 3757+32 which was mostly the close for today as well. ROL was offered India almost equal to CPO which traded in India at 867.50 and ROL buyers are looking around USD 850. Palm is now at par with sunflower oil in USD terms but still will find demand bean oil can remain in short supply. We will repeat that palm will become worth making longs once we touch RM 3550-3450 Level and one can exit longs the moment we touch RM 3850-3950 , to make short one needs to wait for prices to rally towards RM 4250. 


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1950/-2000
  • ND 23 -1820/-1950
  • JF23 –/-2000
  • Mch 23 –/-2100
  • MJJ/24 –/-2100
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1900/-2050
  • ND 23 -1800/-1950
  • JF 24 –/-2050
  • Mch 24 –/-2150
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO*
  • Sept $870 vs $830
  • OND $870 vs $830
  • JFM $885 vs $850
  • AMJ $900 vs $860
  • Palm oil Palm Mkt Closing 
  • DCE Jan/May
  • PO +46 7472 +66 7484 
  • BO +38 8290 +56 7872 
  • SBN -55 5085 -52 5045 
  • SBM -25 3979 -43 3372 
  • CBOT 
  • Esbo Dec -0.25 61.47 
  • Esbn Nov +1.25 1351.00 
  • Esbm Dec +1.50 396.30 
  • SOYOIL SHARE Sep 43.74%
  • ENERGY
  • Crude Wti Oct +0.53 89.05 
  • GasOil Oct -2.25 987.50 
  • Brent Nov +0.64 92.52 
  • POGO Mar -29 
  • FX
  • EUR 1.0728 
  • CNY 7.2773 
  • RM  4.6855 
  • INR 83.0400 
  • IDR 15355 
  • BMD (3rd Month) Nov +33 3759 
  • Hi 3776  Lo 3698  
  • Vol 61,608 lots 
  • MSIAN OLN
  • Oct 842.5n v 
  • OND 855n v 
  • JFM 880/77.5 v 870/72.5 
  • AMJ 890/87.5 v 880 
  • JAS 882.5 v 865
  • LCL MSIA CPO
  • Sep DLVD 3750
  • LCL MSIA STEARIN
  • Oct DLVD 780
  • LCL MSIA PFAD
  • Oct DLVD 775
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB Izmail USD 720 vs 700
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB ON 740 vs —
  • Spain Indicated for ON 870 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ON 865 vs. —
  • CIF India offers for CSFO ON at USD 870 vs 840
  • Turkey indicated for Mersin at USD 790 vs 770
  • Currency INR 82.98, RM 4.68, Rub 96.56 and Euro 1.0733


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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