Athena Market Buzz

1200 18102023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning,


Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Boost Investments in GOLD, Triggering 4-Week Highs

The recent surge in geopolitical tensions has significantly impacted various global markets, including a notable upswing in the investment flow towards gold, propelling it to attain a 4-week high. Alongside this, China's robust economic growth has outpaced previous estimates, stimulating a dynamic investment climate. In parallel, crude oil prices rallied to an impressive $89, indicating a clear trajectory towards the much-anticipated $100 mark once again. MDEX, the index for Malaysian derivatives, almost reached the targeted 3850 mark, while CBOT bean oil has consistently remained well above the 55.50 mark for December, indicating a probable rise to 57.50. Despite the recent spike in Sunflower oil sellers' offers to USD 930, Iran's import ban is predicted to further bolster prices, amplifying the ongoing rally.

MDEX encountered initial resistance upon opening at a higher rate and made an attempt to breach the RM 3850 threshold, ultimately settling at RM 3823 (+39) for January and RM 3805 (+38) for December. As anticipated, the market is likely to encounter substantial resistance near the RM 3850 mark, potentially leading long-position traders to liquidate some holdings, causing a slight market correction. However, it remains our firm stance that a correction towards the RM 3450-3550 range would present an opportune moment for shrewd investors to make significant buy-ins. Moreover, should we manage to close above RM 3812 for January, the market might witness an upward surge towards the RM 4000 level, which would prompt us to consider incorporating short positions into our portfolio. Notably, the broader palm market has been maintaining a relatively stable range, but the impact of the war on fuel prices could potentially serve as a catalyst for an upward momentum in palm prices. With China surpassing expectations and India already displaying an increase in consumption, a supportive price trend is expected to persist. Furthermore, the spread between CPO and ROL has widened to at least USD 20, with CPO at USD 890 and ROL at 870, indicating an emerging trend that favors ROL trades. Considering the current market conditions, we advise readers to consider procuring ROL in the event of a correction to the USD 830-840 range or INR at 800-810.


CBOT bean oil experienced a marginal downtrend in recent sessions, with December witnessing a decrease of 55 points at 55.35 and January at a decline of 49 points at 54.63. However, in the morning session, it displayed signs of recovery, with December rising by 25 points to 55.60 and January increasing by 23 points to 54.86. Our analysis suggests that given the current global situation and the rising demand, CBOT holds the potential to surge towards 57.50, potentially sooner than anticipated. Meanwhile, the basis is expected to fluctuate between -1300 to -1500, thereby maintaining the flat price more or less at its current levels, with FOB ranging between 935-950 and CNF India between 1000-1030. These levels remain conducive for our readers to consider long positions, with a cautionary recommendation to refrain from further purchases once we touch the 57.50 mark. Any subsequent increase in CBOT prices should be viewed as an opportunity to either liquidate long positions or hedge the same. The projected ceiling for flat-priced bean oil stands around USD 1100, with a downside protection at USD 950, give or take USD 20. Locally, bean oil traded in Kandla at around INR 810-820 inclusive of duty, presenting a significant disparity of around USD 65. This disparity is unwarranted, and we anticipate that the local market would make adjustments to align with global trends, thereby benefitting the domestic crush and overall bean market. While there has been a slight improvement in soybeans, arrivals remain modest, with farmers in the market yard continuing to sell at MSP levels.


Ukraine's sunflower oil prices have stabilized, holding at the current levels, with Turkey offering prices hovering around USD 880, while six ports are actively trading at 920 for JFM contracts. In India, there have been reports of some lower-priced offers around USD 905-910, although it remains uncertain if any trades have been finalized, given the prevalent preference for spot cargo, which is currently limited. It would not be surprising to witness an increase in offers to India, potentially reaching USD 930-950, prompting buyers to bid within the USD 905-910 range. However, it is unlikely that they would commit to these prices immediately. It is worth noting that local oil supplies are depleting rapidly, and we anticipate a supply gap in the supply chain during October, leading to an eventual scarcity by early to mid-November, thereby driving local prices higher, particularly in light of robust festive demand. Furthermore, the ongoing war situation is expected to sustain the price support. Consequently, we urge our readers to continue seeking spot longs, while for forward positions, it is advisable to target prices below USD 900 CNF India.

 -  ARGENTINA-


Nov-1330/-1390(Fob Slr 927.03$/Byr 913.81)-14$


Dec-1320/-1390(929.24/913.81)-12


JF ?/-1350


Mar-1400/-1650(884.04/828.93)-9


BRAZIL-


Nov No Slr/-1420(NS/907.19)


Dec-1350/No Byr(922.63/NB)-17


Jan No Slr/-1450(NS/884.71)


Mar-1400/-1650(884.04/828.93)-9

  • 6 port Europe ND 935 vs 910
  • JFM 935 vs 920
  • AMJ 945 vs -
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jan 3823 (+39)
  • H 3835 / L 3771
  • Vol :  28,526
  • Oln  
  • Nov 835 vs
  • Dec 835 vs 830
  • Jfm 852.5 vs 847.5 
  • Amj 855 vs 850
  • Jas 845 vs 835 
  • Ond 845 vs 832.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 790 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 770 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3800 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 890
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 850
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1010
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5563 (+28)
  • Dec 5485 (+22)
  • Jan 5429 (+19)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7366 (+42)
  • May 7408 (+50)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil indicative FOB ND 810 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indicative FOB ND 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ND 920 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ND 915 vs —
  • CNF India indicative offers for ND 930 vs 900
  • Turkey indicated for ND Ukraine origin USD 870 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.28, RM 4.74, Rub 97.43 and Euro 1.0578

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)




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