Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 

Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already.  

Cbot bean oil was volatile but with news about US continuing to support biofuels we saw short rally with settlement May at 60.95 -24 and July at 6083 +22. CBOT bean oil should try to test the high made yesterday again at 61.50 and with the basis recovering we can expect higher flat price indications. Once again bean oil near by to India is offered at USD 1260 and March at USD 1228. We maintain our view that spot bean oil can be b ought between USD 1200-1250 and Forwards like March and April are worth looking between 1150-1200. Locally in India the pressure has eased a little as the sellers are not too keen to discount the prices. With no TRQ from March 2023 landed price of bean oil will still be over INR 100,000/- and we could see lot of support around here. With international prices coming down India could look to increase the duty while still keeping the prices of veg oil between 90,000-100,000 price band. We maintain our view that CBOT should find long term strong supports at 52.50-54.50 and till then price will remain volatile with downward risk. As regards to flat price we should largely protect the levels of USD 1150 where there will not be much volatility. 


Sunflower oil Ukraine was indicated at USD 1240 for India and buyers are actually looking to price it around USD 1180. Bean oil for forward months is offered at USD 1190 and this is making sunflower oil a tough ask. Though the duty on bean oil will be higher we expect that Indian government will also remove TRQ on sunflower oil import making it a level playing field for all. Ukraine Russia war is same with Ukraine continues to ask for more weapons and Russia continues to maintain a static attack. In between we are hearing some cargo ships getting damaged but not enough to put supplies into a question mark. If more weapons come to Ukraine we can expect Russia tightening the export agreement and we may see some supply disruption but till then sunflower oil will remain as a follower to bean oil prices. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -750 vs -850
  • Mch -900 vs -1050
  • AM -1080 vs -1180
  • MJJ -1100 vs -1200
  • BR SBO
  • Feb - vs -850
  • Mch -900 vs -1070
  • AM -1100 vs -1200
  • JJ -1070 vs -1230
  • AS – vs -1050
  • OND - vs -1050
  • 6 ports Europe last nights SFO 
  • Feb 1165 vs 1140
  • Mch 1170 vs 1135
  • AMJ 1190 vs 1155
  • JAS  1200 vs 1165
  • OND 1190 vs 1155
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3857 (+76)
  • H 3868 / L 3773
  • Vol : 20,846
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 965 vs
  • Mar 965 vs 
  • Amj 965 vs 960
  • Jas 965 vs 955
  • Ond 965 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Feb 935 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 702.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3900
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 238 (pk) / 239 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1025
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 975
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1455
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 6093 (+14)
  • May 6108 (+13)
  • Jul 6096 (+13)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1130 vs—
  • Russia sunflower oil FOB 1120 vs —
  • Spain indicated Feb at USD 1230 vs —
  • Italy indicated Feb at USD 1225 vs — 
  • CIF India indicated at USD 1240 for feb vs —
  • Turkey indicated USD 1210 vs 1190 march Mersin 
  • Currency INR 81.55 ,Rub 69.31, Euro 1.0869 and RM 4.23


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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