Athena Market Buzz

Good Morning , 


Mdex opened lower mildly and by lunch June was trading at RM 3633 -31. Soft oils are too cheap for destinations like India and it appears that the correction is still not over which makes Palm super costly. For the first time we are seeing palm trading almost at par for near by months with sunflower oil and the spread between soybean oil to palm has also reduced to the lowest. India definitely will start consuming more soft oils and reduce the consumption of palm eventually increasing the stocks at origin. It appears that Palm is artificially held till 31st March and we can see good correction once Malaysian export number disappoint traders. MDEX will become buy only between MR 3450-3550 with a stop loss at RM 3250. We are getting offers for CPO at USD 965 for April, USD 945 for May against this sunflower oil in India is offered at USD 1000 and soybean oil can trade at 1065 making palm costly in comparison. Though most of the correction is already factored and with Fed likely to increase another 25 basis points by may we feel that Rm 3250 will surely be defended if the market corrects now and continues to export. If the correction is denied till May we will have a situation where Malaysia and Indonesia both will fight back for palm market share from Sunflower oil and Soybean oil which could result in prices slipping even below RM 3250. We will repeat that our traders should wait for prices to correct below RM 3550 and come near RM 3450 for buying back shorts and even making slight longs.


Fed increased 0.25 basis points again and if appears they will do one more increase in Interest rates before May 2023 followed by slow reductions by 2024. This prompted large sell off in bean oil and it settled May at 54.64 -160, and July at 54.75 -160 after making a days low around 54.50 level. As expected bean oil has already touched 54.50 and surprisingly basis have remained unchanged which pushed the flat price lower. CNF India MJJ is now offered at USD 1070 and this is about USD 70 costlier to sunflower oil. As mentioned before pricing the cargo in a range of 1000-1050  should make money for importers and we would suggest only 25% pricing once we touch that mark. Locally in India the price of beans is still over INR 5000 but looking at bleak prospects of meal exports and falling Soybean oil prices it will be hard to maintain the current levels. 


Ukraine sunflower oil was offered to India at USD 1000 for may shipment. War is tearing Russia and Ukraine both with exporters trying to export before the worse happens. Ukraine will harvest 3 million MT of rape seeds soon which will also be exported mostly to Europe. Price of rape oil is already at USD 850 FOB Antwerp and with new crop from Ukraine hitting chances of it rallying seems unlikely. Sunflower oil too will continue to find its way out  and with the current pace we expect Ukraine to run out of surplus oil by end June/ July which is when we will be seeing slightly firmer prices. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr-23 -850/-950
  • MJJ-23 -950/-1050
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr-23 –/-1000
  • May-23 -900/-1050
  • MJJ-23  -950/-1050
  • 6 ports Europe Apr   930 vs 870
  • AMJ  930 vs 870
  • JAS   930 vs 870
  • OND  930 vs 870
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3571 (-93)
  • H 3683 / L 3561
  • Vol :  75,152
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 930 vs
  • May 905 vs
  • MJ 895 vs
  • Jun 885 vs
  • Jas 855 vs 847.5 trd 857.5-860
  • Ond 852.5 vs
  • Jfm 857.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Apr 905 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 700 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 3950
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 239 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1025
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 945
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1375
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5409 (-55)
  • Jul 5418 (-57)
  • Aug 5380 (-50)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7220 (-242)
  • Sep 7034 (-214)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May indicative FOB 880 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil May FOB 880 vs—
  • Spain indicated May USD 980 vs—
  • Italy indicated May USD 975 vs—
  • CIF LW India indicated for May at USD 1000 vs —
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.26, RM 4.41, Rub 76.86 and Euro 1.087


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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