Athena Market Buzz


1500 15022023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 

Mdex opened firm but with profit taking and resistance of RM 4000 intact we saw it correcting for April to RM 3945 -11 by lunch which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3925 -31. As mentioned before Palm is not attractive to make longs at the moment and the current levels could be used to book profits, in order to make short one could wait for prices to jump towards RM 4250 and for making longs one can target a range of RM 3550-3750 till end of march 2023. Going forward we will see more consolidation and if the macro factor remains the  same we could see palm oil retracting towards RM 3250 some where in May when Indonesia will also put pressure to export more and more palm oil. Summer month demand should normally support consumption but with India rumoured to put duties will put a cap on the rally and prices around RM 4450 should find good resistance. Exports from Malaysia are picking up and it will have its impact on the end stocks which is where we can get a chance to hedge the longs. CPO prices to India are holding on to USD 990-1000 levels with little trades. 


Cbot bean oil settled marginally higher with March up 26 at 60.40 and May up29 at 60.53 which at the time of writing this report is trading 59.91 -49 and 60.03 -50 respectively. CBOT will continue to find resistance around 62.50 and short term supports will be at 57.50 until we break them and touch 54.50. We are not friendly CBOT but with weather issues and delay in loading we could see some stress on basis as well however eventually the basis should recover and keep the flat price FOB firm. Beans have started correcting and its impact could also be seen on Meal. Globally the crush was happening for meal and now for the coming months it will have to be for Oil. Degum oil prices CNF India becomes a good buy between 1150-1200 for spot months and 1100-1150 for May June shipment. Locally bean oil prices are indicated at INR 1060-1070 and we do hear some trades but for forward months there is absolutely no demand. Soybean crops stands at 12 million for India with almost 50% marketed we do expect more farmer selling in coming months keeping local oils well supplied. If the TRQ on sunflower oil is not removed and duty on palm not increased we will find export of meal difficult and crush margins under stress. Prices of beans in local market are trading at our forecasted prices range of INR 5500-6000 and we can end the current year campaign just around these levels. 


Ukraine continue to struggle on the ground as the NATO members meet to speak on current situation. War continues and all we can hope is some peace finally in the region. Shipments from Ukraine will come under attack too as Russia expresses their unhappiness towards the grain corridor deal and all this could happen in a months time from now when the deal actually expires. Sunflower oil traded India for March shipment at USD 1190 and some volumes traded at USD 1200 for late feb early march shipments as well. These prices for Sunflower oil are mostly inline with Bean oil hence getting traded however for forward months specially May June we see bean oil cheaper by over USD 40-50 and with India thinking of removing the TRQ we could see sunflower oil also correcting. We would suggest our readers to continue to make longs for spot cargo but refrain from buying forward months till we see bean oil at par with sunflower oil. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb   -750 vs -950
  • Mar  -850 vs -1000 
  • MJJ   -1150  vs -1250 
  • BR SBO
  • Mar -900 vs ??
  • Apr  ??  vs  -1180 
  • AM   -1100  vs -1180
  • JJ     -1500  vs  -1200
  • AS  ??  vs  -1150
  • 6 ports Europe RSO FDM (€)
  • Feb-23 1100 vs 1065
  • Mar-23 1095 vs 1065
  • Apr-23 1090 vs 1065
  • FMA-23 1095 vs 1065
  • MJJ-23 1095 vs 1080
  • ASO-23 1100 vs 1080
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3945 (-11)
  • H 3985 / L 3937
  • Vol : 19,075
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 950 vs 
  • Mar 952.5 vs 940
  • Amj 955 vs 947.5/50
  • Jas 950 vs 945
  • Ond 947.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 915 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 695 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3970
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 235 (pk) / 235 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1020
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 955
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1390
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 5996 (-44)
  • May 6011 (-42)
  • Jul 6001 (-41)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7910 (+38)
  • Sep 7822 (+34)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil March FOB 1050 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil March FOB 1045 vs —
  • Spain indicated March at 1200 vs —
  • Italy indicated March at 1195 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for ECI March at USD 1210 vs 1190 buy idea
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.78, RM 4.39, Rub 74.28 and Euro 1.0725




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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