Athena Market Buzz

 1400 27022023 Athena Market Buzz Monday



Good morning,

MDEX opened 0.7% lower for most of the month and recovered a little afterward, with May closing at lunch RM 4165 -37. Exports from Malaysia are moving higher as the demand for palm oil increased in China and India due to increased temperatures and unrestricted movement of people. Indonesia, too, is utilizing more for domestic consumption, limiting the supplies. It will be important to note how much destination countries can consume palm and what will be overall February export numbers and if they show an increasing trend. Resistance of Rm 4250 is intact, and the market is coming off the highs now. At the time of writing this report, May is trading at RM 4178 -24, and as mentioned before, if the market crosses RM 4250, then it will become a sell. One can start shorting the same between Rm 4250-4450 and cover the shorts back between RM 3750-4000. For making longs, one should wait till the prices come around RM 3750 or below. CPO India is offered locally at INR 850, ROL at INR 965, and CNF Offers were heard initially at USD 1040-1045.

CBOT settled lower on Friday over inflation worries. Bases, too, were weak, resulting in overall lower FOB and CNF Levels. Bean oil closed May at 61.22-96 and July 60.81-95. Bases, on the other hand, for MJJ was -1150 on the offer side. CBOT should find a lot of resistance around the 62.50 marks, and with beans also coming down/Meal also down, we could see the cash price of bean oil finding supports between USD 1100-1150 CNF India. Current offers to India for MJJ are at USD 1175 with a potential to correct anywhere between USD 50-75. We have already corrected USD 50 from recent highs of USD 1230 India, and with some more correction, bean oil will become a buy. Sunflower oil, on the other hand, is steady at USD 1150-1170, and this will give some support to bean oil as well. The spread for the nearby month is in favor of sun, but forward months, bean oil will be preferred. Globally, the concerns over inflation are not over, and this will cut overall food demand, resulting in the market trading in a very narrow range. Prices between USD 1100-1200 CNF India will most likely be the range for MJJ unless we hear anything impactful from Ukraine/Russia.


Beans are mostly unchanged in hinterland India, but local oil prices coming down are impacting the crush margins. Most of the crushers have already committed to exports of meal, but with no hedge for Refine oils, crush margins could have a strong impact.



Egypt's confirmation of purchasing around 17,000 metric tons (MT) of sunflower oil at USD 1170 and an additional 10,000 MT at 1190 basis payment at sight has lent support to Ukraine's sunflower market. FOB prices have corrected to a range of 1050 to 1060, while India has also traded considerable volumes of sunflower oil. The country purchased sunflower oil at USD 1060 for Argentine origin and 1070-1075 for Black Sea origin last week. Currently, offers for Ukraine origin sunflower oil for April shipment stand at USD 1175 WCI India. However, TRQ (tariff rate quota) remains in place for sunflower oil, and the government is not inclined to remove it. The quotas for the next year will be awarded in April, which is expected to benefit sunflower oil over bean oil. The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of stopping, and the pressure from Ukraine to export maximum oil may remain until May. Ukraine started the campaign with approximately 10.5 million MT of sunflower seeds, with around 3 million MT carried forward. About 2 million MT was exported as seeds, and from October to February-end, around 3 million MT was exported as sunflower oil. It is estimated that they have around 1.5 million MT of seeds left to be exported. With only about 2.5-300,000 MT left to be exported each month from Ukraine, the market is expected to remain tight, especially with rising temperatures in Europe, which may impact their standing sunseed crop. If the prices for Argentine origin sunflower oil correct down by USD 30-40 below bean oil, it is suggested that buyers be prepared to pick even for forward months.


  • ARG SBO
  • Mch -850K vs -910K
  • Apr -1250 vs -1120
  • MJJ -1150 vs -1230
  • BR SBO
  • Mch - vs -1000K
  • Apr -1050 vs -1150
  • AM -1070 vs -1200
  • MJJ -1000 vs -1250
  • 6 ports Europe Apr 1160 vs 1140
  • AMJ  1165 vs 1145
  • JAS   1185 vs 1160
  • OND 1180 vs 1150
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 4165 (-37)
  • H 4210 / L 4147
  • Vol :  21,628
  • Oln:  
  • Mar 977.5 (pk) vs 
  • Amj 977.5 vs 965
  • Jas 967.5 vs 962.5 trd 967.5 -965
  • Ond 957.5 vs
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 945 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 740 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4200
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Mar 239 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1037.5
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 957.5
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1387.5
  • Sbo :  
  • Mar 6109 (-13)
  • May 6065 (-16)
  • Jul 5998 (-13)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8192 (-99)
  • Sep 8028 (-88)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil 1050 v —
  • Russian sunflower oil March 1045 vs —
  • Spain indicated March at USD 1175 vs —
  • Italy indicated March at USD 1170 vs —
  • CIF LW India indications for April Black Sea origin at USD 1175 vs —
  • Turkey has tendered for Oil with best offer at USD 1170 v —
  • Currency INR 82.82, RM 4.47, Rub 75.59 and Euro 1.055





Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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