Athena Market Buzz

1530 23022023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Afternoon, 


Mdex opened firm and by lunch April settled RM 4184 +45 and May at RM 4190 +44. Indian market is experiencing heat and so the demand for Palm oil is also heating up. We hard few vessels traded or priced of ROL between USD 1010-1020 in Chennai and west coast was looking for CPO till late evening. India also price sunflower oil yesterday but we have not heard any major trades in Bean oil. With over night strength from rival oils and Indonesia slowing down the export entire market is focusing on Malaysia and at the time of writing this report we are  trying to touch the resistance of RM 4250. April is trading at RM 4217 +78 and May at RM 4223 +77. We still expect that RM 4250 should remain a resistance now that sunflower oil which can be imported duty free in to India is only 130-150 costlier to Palm. If the resistance of RM 4250 is broken today than we would suggest our readers to be ready to short the market between RM 4250-4450 with a stop loss of RM 4500 for short term and be ready to own the same back If it closes below RM 4000. Levels between RM 3750-3850 are good to cover back shorts and to make longs one can look at RM 3550-3750 range. Exports are picking up but by May Indonesia may increase the export Quota which could limit the upside for time being we  see the resistance of RM 4250 being tested. CPO to India is indicated CNF at USD 1040-1050 and ROL after trading last night at 1020 is being offered now for March at USD 1035. 


Bean oil settled marginally higher last night with march trading at 62.83 +6 and May at 63.05 +10. Heat waves across the globe and particularly dry weather in Argentina is threatening the crops which is push the CBOT higher keeping basis mostly unchanged. We expect resistance around 64.50 on CBOT but with war between Russia/ Ukraine , increasing global food demand, and Dry weather in Argentina to keep basis well supported. Our lower side targets to make longs were very well protected and now the offers are about USD 100 higher to recent lows with May indicated at USD 1230 CNF India. Current levels are costly in bean oil but has a potential to rally towards USD 1350 hence we would not suggest our readers to go short instead hold on to their longs and sell the same in rally.   Once again when the weather concern gets over we could see bean oil prices sliding a little but we will suggest our readers to be ready to make longs between USD 1100-1150 for MJJ which has a potential to rally towards USD 1350 at least. Locally in India bean oil is costlier oil compared to sunflower oil and due to uncertainty in Ukraine the cargo is very well supplied making it hard for local prices to rally. Soon Bean oil will not be very attractive in India but with global rally it will still find some support and could stay strong. 


Black Sea Ukraine is in a rush to export what ever they have and are dumping their agri produce to destinations specially sunflower oil to India. Sellers last night were at USD 1170 and were willing to look at USD 1160 price vis a vis Argentinian sellers were holding their offers between USD 1155-1160 for April shipment. India currently is heavily supplied on sunflower oil and this has depressed to local market and demand. Over all it is assumed that out of 2 Million MT duty free quota about 1.6 million is already utilised and only 400k is left to be used before June 2023. Rumours also believe that the TRQ may get extended for another year on sun but if the prices continue to correct in international market then India will be pushed to being duty back on sun to protect the domestic  rape seed and soybean seed farmers. Russian have announced an export tax of USD 27 which could indicated India also to increase the taxes. We heard CIF Mersin trading at USD 1115, CIF India trading between USD 1155-1170 depending on origin, and also heard CNF Constanza trading at USD 1060. FOB black sea prices are just about USD 1030 with Russian origin also holding at same level. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased after the visit of MR Biden and China also announcing more support to Russia. Situation will get worse in next 2 weeks and this is pushing the sunflower oil market lower. We would suggest our readers to continue to buy before Sun becomes costlier to soya. 


ARG SBO

Mch -900 vs -980

Apr -1050 vs -1170

MJJ -1100 vs -1200

BR SBO

Mch -950 vs -1100

AM - vs -1200

6 ports Europe Spot bid1160/offer 1170

AMJ 1165/1175

JAS 1175/1190

OND 1185/-


Palm oil MAR +92(4191)K.L

APR +89(4228)K.L

MAY +89(4235)K.L

JUNE +89(4213)K.L

JULY +83(4174)K.L

Oln:  

Mar 995 vs 

Amj 995 vs 982.5 trd 985

Jas 985 vs 972.5 trd 975 


Rbdpo: -10


Strn: Mar 975 (deld) 

Pfad: Mar 735 (deld)


Local Cpo: Mar 4230


Laurics:

Cpko: Mar 240 (pk) / 241 (pg)

Rbdpko: Mar 1030

Rbdpkoln: Mar 960

Rbdpks: Mar 1390


Sbo :  

Mar 6285 (+2)

May 6304 (-1)

Jul 6263 (-2)

Black Sea sunflower oil March Indicated 1060 vs —

Russian sunflower oil march Indicated 1055 vs —

Spain indicated March at 1170 vs 1145

Italy indicated March at 1165 vs 

CIF India Traded yesterday 1165 for argie origin and today the offers are at USD 1170-1175

Turkey traded yesterday at 1115 and today the offers are at 1125 vs —

Currency INR 82.66, RM 4.42, Rub 74.98 and Euro 1.0592




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

  1430 08072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY HBDAARI Palm Oil Market : The palm oil market is very slow today in India as MDEX is closed and traders are not getting any direction. Such days are important as most of the consolidation happens during a holiday, followed by short covering on the opening day. Our view remains unchanged: as the market progresses towards RM 4150 and above, we advise our traders to start making small shorts, increasing them once we test RM 4450, while buying during corrections towards RM 3750. Production is decreasing, India is entering the festive season, and demand for edible vegetable oil is increasing, which will provide enough support. Bearish traders are looking at crude oil prices, hoping that softer crude could put pressure on vegetable oil, but we expect crude to remain stable and slowly inch higher towards 100 by the end of this year when the requirement for heating oil increases. In India, offers are mostly unchanged from Friday, and there are n...
Read more

ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1600 10062024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY Good Morning, Congratulations to Team India for their victory against Pakistan in the ICC T-20 World Cup, and to the people of India for reelecting Shri Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. MDEX opened lower, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3952, down 23 points. At the time of writing, August has further declined to RM 3926, down 49 points. With it being Monday, we expect the slow trade to continue, overlooking the weakness in bean oil and increased stock figures. MPOB data shows opening stocks at 1.74 million MT, with production up by 13.48% and end stocks up by 0.5%. Despite the good discount of palm oil over other soft oils, traders expected higher export numbers, leading to the sell-off. The pace of export is good, and we can expect stock reduction by the end of the month, which will adjust the market higher. The RSI in MDEX is just over 50%, keeping the view mostly neutral, and we can expect some more selling pressure as the day progresses....
Read more