Athena Market Buzz

1530 16022023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 

Mdex opened higher and by lunch we are already trading at RM 4016 +72 for May month which at the time of writing this article is trading at RM 4080 +136 almost on the days high. Reasons for this market rally can be attributed to rumour about Indonesia changing the DMO ratio and also production issues resulting in lower end stocks. Palm is safely over RM 4000 and we would suggest our readers to exit longs. As mentioned before we are not in favour for any strong rally till end of march but jumps over RM 4200 could be used to make fresh shorts. On the other hand RM 3750 is good level to buy back shorts and to make longs one can again enter between RM 3550-3750 range. With the spread narrowing between palm and soya Indians could prefer bean oil over palm however with Inflation touching 6% for India some trade pundits are not in favour of increasing duty which is also giving some support to current prices. CNFIndia the offers have slightly increased with March April at 1010-1015 locally CPO is indicated at INR 825 with good trades. 



CBOT bean oil settle higher last night with march settling 61.24 +84 and May 61.44 +91 which at the time of writing this report was marginally up again. Interestingly the basis have corrected and we see the spread between spot month and forward month getting reduced. March to India was offered at USD 1228 , April at USD 1218 and May at 1195. As mentioned before Degum oil prices CNF India becomes a good buy between 1150-1200 for spot months and 1100-1150 for May June shipment. Locally in India the sellers are around INR 1060-1070 but we have not heard any trades. CBOT bean oil can trade sideways to lower and accordingly basis will adjust to keep the flat price more or less in a USD 100 range. We should see some profit taking and board could correct towards 54.50 eventually however we still feel that holding on to above range would largely be prudent till End June 2023. 


Ukraine sunflower oil traded India for march shipment between USD 1200-1190 and we have heard Argentine parcel getting traded at USD 1165-75.  War is pushing sunflower oil sellers to indicate aggressive price and export as much as they can before the corridor closes again hence there will be constant pressure on the offside till March 2023. We would suggest India’s to keep replacing spot cargo and refrain from buying forward months. Most of the processors have exhausted the TRQ or their TRQ is taken back which is also and indication that we may see TRQ going away completely. This will put pressure on USD prices and we could see forward sunflower oil also competing with soya for market share. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb   -900 vs -1000
  • Mar  -960 vs -1000 
  • MJJ   -1125  vs -1230 
  • BR SBO
  • Mar -950 vs -1050
  • Apr  -1140  vs  -1230 
  • AM   -1150  vs -1250
  • May -1080 vs ??
  • JJ     -1100  vs  -1250
  • AS  -1020  vs  -1150
  • OND ?? vs -1080
  • 6 ports Europe RSO FDM (€)
  • Feb-23 1090/1050*
  • Mar-23 1080/1050
  • Apr-23 1080/1050
  • FMA-23 1083*/1050*
  • MJJ-23 1085/1055
  • ASO-23 1090/1060
  • NDJ-24 1095/1065
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 4016 (+72)
  • H 4018 / L 3927
  • Vol : 27,783
  • Oln:  
  • Mar 960 vs 
  • Amj 962.5 vs 955
  • Jas 955 vs 950
  • Ond 952.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 700 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 4000
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Mar 236 (pk) / 236 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1025
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 960
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1395
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 6145 (+21)
  • May 6162 (+18)
  • Jul 6142 (+16)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7982 (+82)
  • Sep 7884 (+68)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 1050 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 1045 vs—
  • Spain offered March at 1190 vs—
  • Italy offered March at 1185 vs —
  • CIF LW India indications for March 1200 vs 1185
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.64, RM 4.40, Rub 74.68 and Euro 1.0706



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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