ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1400 03072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY



MDEX Analysis: MDEX trading over RM 4000 has prompted technical analysts to turn bullish. The morning started with profit booking and selling pressure, with September reaching a day's low at RM 4020. By lunchtime, it had recovered to RM 4058 -31. RSI and other technical indicators suggest a clear upward trend towards RM 4450. We advise our readers to avoid short positions for now and wait for prices to cross RM 4250 before considering shorts. The trade spat between China and Indonesia favors Malaysian oil and US Bean oil, likely keeping prices above RM 4000 this week. Indian buyers are active, covering good volumes of ROL between USD 910-935, and with current price ideas around USD 955, India will continue to seek ROL. Discussions about China shifting to Malaysian oil over Indonesian products could further fuel the rally. Short covering by funds and commercial players will likely drive fresh highs. Locally in India, the cheapest cargo is in Krishnapatnam port, with resellers active in other port markets. Activity may remain subdued until MDEX shows positive movement again, enabling back-to-back margins.

Bean Oil Market: Bean oil is performing well, with our target price of 47.50 now within reach. Last night's close for August was 47.04 +101, and at the time of writing, it is trading at 47.37 +33. Funds exiting their short positions will face resistance around 47.50, but we are confident the market will rally to 52.50, where we advise readers to consider shorts. Firm rival oils like sunflower oil, supply disruptions from Ukraine, China's return to soybean oil buying, prospects for a crude oil price rally in winter months, strong Indian demand due to the festive season, and potential FED interest rate cuts are all bullish factors for CBOT. Production issues in palm oil, rape seed, and sunflower oil will also boost sentiment. Basis may correct a bit, with July at -200 and August at -480, potentially bottoming around -500. We suggest readers make longs in basis and CBOT, as the flat price is still competitive compared to sunflower oil. CNF India price ideas for bean oil in August are around USD 1025, with some sellers looking to sell at USD 1015. For OND, cargo can be priced around USD 1000, but we suggest waiting, as prices may correct towards USD 950. Bean oil is expected to rally back to USD 1100 CNF India; avoid short positions until then.

Sunflower Oil Market: Sunflower oil consumption has increased in destinations like India and the Middle East. FOB sellers are offering lower prices than usual, with trades into Turkey around USD 975 against current offers of USD 1000. Turkish traders are asking for OND prices around USD 910 CIF Mersin, and India is looking to secure volumes if prices fall below USD 1000. Hot weather in Ukraine and Russia's sunflower-growing regions could lead to lower acreage and yields, similar to India's summer conditions. Current estimates from Russia show a slight increase in planted area, but Ukraine shows a reduction. India, after trading at USD 1035, is now offered around USD 1060, with small spot volumes available around USD 1045. These levels are higher compared to other oils, but the premium is sufficient to accommodate sunflower oil consumption. Core demand for sunflower oil in India has increased to around 350,000 MT, and India appears partially uncovered for August and September.

Overall, we observe bullish trends and strong market fundamentals supporting palm oil, bean oil, and sunflower oil prices. Readers are advised to carefully monitor the markets and consider strategic positions based on current and expected price movements.


  • Argentina
  • JA -200/-300, *tdd -320*
  • Aug -480/-550
  • Sept -530/-600
  • OND -530/-630
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • JA ?/-300
  • Aug -500/-600
  • Sept -450/-630
  • OND -450/-650
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO ATHENA, FOB ($)*
  • July 1045 vs - 
  • AS 1065 vs - 
  • OND 1055 vs 1045 
  • JFM 1060 vs -1045
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Sep 4058 (-31)
  • H 4104 / L 4020
  • Vol : 38,244
  • Oln  
  • Aug 910 vs 900
  • Sept 902.5 vs 895  
  • Ond 892.5 vs 885/87.5
  • Jfm 902.5 vs 895/97.5
  • Amj 902.5 vs 895/97.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Aug 910 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Aug 845 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 4150
  • Laurics: Jul 323 (pk) / 323 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 1265
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 1175
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1435 (pk) 
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 4693 (unch)
  • Sept 4706 (+2)
  • Oct 4699 (+4)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7982 (+48)
  • Jan 7886 (+34)
  • Rm 4.718
  • Crude : 83.18
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 930 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 925 vs 890
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1045 vs —
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1040 vs ncb
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for  July 1060 vs 1035 , Aug 1060 vs 1035 
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 1000 vs 985 (traded yesterday 985)
  • Currency INR 83.48, RM 4.71, Rub 86.98 and Euro 1.0739


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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