Athena Market Buzz

 1630 01072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY



MDEX opened firm, and by lunch, we were trading over RM 4000 for the first two months. September was trading at RM 3987+71, later attempting a rally and reaching a day's high of RM 4011, currently trading at RM 3990+74. Palm production seems to be an issue, and with June exports mostly in line with May exports, traders are concerned about end stocks. Fresh demand from China lifted sentiments on Friday, and today, India joined in. Although the current level of RM 4000 is psychological and will see selling pressure, with other oils remaining firm, we expect this level to break. If the market closes above RM 4000 today, our target price of RM 4250 will not be far off, where we will advise traders to initiate shorts up to the RM 4450 level. On the Indian side, we heard trades of ROL around USD 935-937 and USD 945 for ECI and WCI, while CPO was indicated at USD 965-970 with few trades. Surprisingly, India increased the tariff on CPO but left the ROL tariff unchanged. This has given Indians a slight edge to look for more ROL instead of CPO, hence more ROL trades were heard today. MDEX is strongly positioned, and it appears that the market may close just around RM 4000, with resistances intact. However, with the overnight CBOT already up 75-76 points, we might gain some more momentum and break the resistance tomorrow. As mentioned before, traders are advised to slowly exit longs and prepare for shorts.

CBOT bean oil settled firm on Friday with August settling at 44.07 +34, and today it is over our support price of 44.50 at 44.73 +66. Given that bean oil is comparatively cheaper than other soft oils and with India entering the festival demand season, we expect very strong support around 42.50 and a possible rally towards 47.50. Basis, on the other hand, are mostly unchanged, putting flat prices in India firmer towards USD 1020 for July pricing, USD 1010, and September also in excess of USD 1000 CNF. Locally, degum for August shipment traded a few times around INR 845 + duty, and then sellers started asking INR 850. Spot cargoes are trading at a premium around INR 870-875 + duty and are expected to get firmer once CBOT rallies towards 47.50. Reduced soybean acreage could also result in firmer oil prices. Bean oil for August shipment to India was indicated around USD 1000, and on Friday, sunflower oil traded in India around USD 1040. Today, similar offers are at USD 1060, prompting Indians to shift towards soybean oil consumption. As mentioned before, one should not hesitate to make longs in bean oil for forward months if prices trade between USD 950-1000 CNF, as prices have the potential to rally towards USD 1100 eventually and then find resistance. However, for the months of OND, India should refrain from buying until there is clarity on monsoon, local crop, and rival sunflower oil acreage and yield.

Black Sea sunflower oil traded a few times in India on Friday between USD 1035-1040 for August shipment, which today is indicated for pricing around USD 1060, while buyers are still looking to price around USD 1035. Indians should not sell local cargo without replacing it, as the situation in the war zone remains serious, and much can happen between cargo shipment and destination. Locally, there is a disparity of about INR 3000 PMT, but refiners are looking to price lower, comparing it with soybean oil. Imports of sunflower oil into India have been heavy in May, and June looks no different. We expect sunflower oil imports of over 550,000 MT in June, pushing origins dry. Ukraine is also increasing exports, resulting in less cargo available for August and September. We suggest that Indians and other origins buy at least for August shipment and wait for September new crop offers.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • July -/-140Q, *tdd -120Q*
  • Aug -310/-360
  • Sept -330/-450
  • OND -400/-470, *tdd -450*
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • July +100Q/-100Q
  • Aug -170/-250
  • Sept -300/-400
  • OND -350/-450, *tdd -420*
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO Athena, FOB ($)*
  • July 1025 vs 1000
  • AS 1035 vs 1005
  • OND 1015 vs 995
  • JFM 1010 vs 985
  • Plam oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Sep 3984 (+68)
  • H 4011 / L 3955
  • Vol : 59,294 
  • Oln  
  • Jul 902.5 vs 
  • As 892.5 vs  
  • Ond 880 vs 875
  • Jfm 892.5 vs 885
  • Amj 892.5 vs  
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Aug 900 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Aug 842.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 4070
  • Laurics: Jul 310 (pk) / 310 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 1210
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 1120
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1380 (pk) 
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4419 (+42)
  • Aug 4472 (+65)
  • Sep 4477 (+70)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7868 (+212)
  • Jan 7792 (+170)
  • Rm 4.71
  • Crude : 81.87
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 910 vs 880
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 910 vs 880
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1055 vs —
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1050 vs ncb
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for  July 1060 vs 1035 , Aug 1060 vs 1035 
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 1010 vs 970
  • Currency INR 83.39, RM 4.70, Rub 84.88 and Euro 1.0771


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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