ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

 


1500 06062025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ THURSDAY


Good Morning,


MDEX opened marginally higher, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3926, up 20 points, compared to yesterday's RM 3940, up 19 points at the same time. We have seen consolidation, selling, and panic short selling, but with demand from India and other destinations, we are witnessing some recovery with the current August MDEX up 634 points at RM 3970. MDEX has already made a high, and we expect it to consistently cross RM 4000 soon since the weak longs are already out, and panic shorts will likely result in a rally. The RSI is just around the 50% mark, indicating a technical buy signal, and we do not suggest our readers enter short positions or exit their longs just yet. As mentioned before, we expect MDEX to cross RM 4250 soon, with resistance only around RM 4450. We recommend our readers not to panic but to buy on the dips. Currently, exports are happening at a good pace, and stocks are more or less unchanged at the origin. Destinations like India, despite importing higher volumes, are still maintaining low port stocks, and the demand is ever-increasing. We are now entering a phase where we will soon start hearing crop damage reports from the sunflower oil side. Pressure from degummed soybean oil will also be absent, and palm oil, currently the cheapest oil, could find strong buying support. CPO to India was offered around USD 945, and ROL indications initially were around USD 920, with buyers looking to price small volumes around the USD 900 mark.

The US Fed is likely to change interest rates by September, which will be bullish for vegetable oil markets. CBOT, which settled last night with August at 43.38, down 47 points, is trading about 1.5% higher today at 44.00, up 62 points. We can expect funds to start covering their shorts and aligning more towards building longs. CBOT should soon trade over 44.50 and actively move towards 47.50 as funds continue to unwind their shorts, with resistance only around 52.50. The basis, on the other hand, has firmed up, with nearby offers mostly even and July indications around -130. Flat price bean oil traded a few times for August into India at USD 985, and today the best seller showed a price of USD 995, maybe 990. Given the current weather and price discovery, Indian farmers might move away from soybeans, and we should not expect the same crop as last year. We can expect degummed soybean oil to soon test USD 1100 at least for nearby months, which should help forwards to move higher as well. Soybean oil for August at USD 995 is about USD 70 lower than the best offer on sunflower oil, which will motivate Indians to start accumulating longs in bean oil.

Spread traders will sell sunflower oil and start owning soybean oil, at least for India, as the premium for forward months now stands at USD 70 for July and August shipment cargoes. As mentioned before, we expect sunflower oil to command a premium and rally towards USD 1100, but as a spread, we expect the range to remain no higher than USD 50 PMT. Indians are selling spot sunflower oil at a disparity due to other oils being cheap, not realizing that the replacement is highly overpriced. Until we see stock pressure reduced in India, we will not see fresh demand. Brokers have started circulating prices of USD 1050 as the base for July and August shipment, where we have heard a lot of plants committing as well. We suggest our readers avoid paying this premium for sunflower oil at the moment and look to buy the spot cargo, which is still available cheaply. Europe has corrected a little, with sellers to six ports indicating USD 1045, against best buyers only around USD 1020 or lower. Flat prices to Spain are also around USD 1050, but with little or no buying interest generating around USD 1020. Rapeseed oil is finding resistance to cross over the USD 1100 mark in Europe, acting as a lid on the already high prices of sunflower oil.



  • *Argentina SBO*
  • June ?/-99
  • July -130/-170, *tdd -170*
  • AS -280/-390
  • OND -320/-380
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • June 0/-200
  • July -/-250
  • AS -/-460
  • OND -/-500
  • 6 ports Europe *Athena FOB ($)*
  • June 1045 vs -
  • JAS 1045 vs 1030 
  • OND 1020 vs 1000 
  • JFM 1020 vs 1005
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3961 (+55)
  • H 3978 / L 3890
  • Vol :  54,591 
  • Oln  
  • Jul 890 vs 882.5
  • AS 890 vs 882.5
  • Jas 890 vs 882.5
  • Ond 890 vs 882.5
  • Jfm 905 vs 895
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jul 890 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 830 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3980
  • Laurics: Jun 291 (pk) / 291 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 1170
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 1100
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1310
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4375 (+62)
  • Aug 4403 (+65)
  • Sep 4413 (+64)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7734 (+118)
  • Jan 7744  (+96) 
  • Rm 4.692
  • Crude : 74.32
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 950 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 940 vs 900
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1050 vs 1020
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1045 vs 1010
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1060 vs 1020 / June 1060 vs 1030 ,July 1055 vs 1035 and Aug is indicated around USD 1050 for 20,000 mt. 
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 985 vs 960 
  • Currency INR 83.47, RM 4.69, Rub 88.88 and Euro 1.0871


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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