Athena Market Buzz

1500 04062025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ TUESDAY


Good Morning,


India celebrates the victory of the current Prime Minister, and the mood is euphoric and celebratory. Large parts of India are not working today, and the impact of Dalian on MDEX is causing panic among the longs. Brent is down to 77.064, natural gas is down, heating oil is down, and even gold is trading lower today.

MDEX opened after a long weekend to a gap down, and by lunchtime, August was at RM 3941 -135. At the time of writing this report, August is further down to RM 3906 -170, almost at the day's low. Dalian is losing steam, and funds are mostly booking profits and exiting their longs. This is good as weaker longs will exit their positions around RM 4000, cementing the view of a rally towards RM 4250 strongly. MDEX, which corrects below RM 3850, will be bought, and as mentioned before, we expect good buying interest to emerge between RM 3700-3800. A possible rebound could be as sharp as the correction itself. RSI has just touched the 50% mark, which could mean that there will be some more selling pressure. Supports between RM 3700-3800 are evident, and we encourage our readers to take long positions within this range. We will repeat that prices will find resistance around RM 4400, and when MDEX crosses over RM 4250-4450, we will suggest our readers exit longs and initiate fresh shorts. India is indicated for ROL at around USD 900, but buyers are seen for June shipment at USD 880. Locally, there is slight scare looking at the 4.5% down in MDEX, and though sellers are around INR 87,500/-, we have not heard of any buying interest.

CBOT bean oil settled August at 44.35 -140, and with the current momentum in MDEX, it appears that even today, it will be under pressure. The support of 44.50 is gone, and now the trading range could remain between 42.50-44.50. However, this will give an opportunity for the basis to firm up as we will not see cheap commercial sellers. CNF India selling price ideas for bean oil are between USD 1030-1020 for June/July. Against this, the local market in Kandla is INR 85,000/-, roughly equal to 995, giving a back-to-back disparity of USD 35 PMT. The Indian market is very volatile today due to election results, and even the INR has depreciated over 0.5%, with the current SPOT price at 83.50. Normally, when a correction comes, the local market, which is already in disparity, takes long to adjust, and we see some replacement margins. However, with such a strong correction, everyone is adopting a wait-and-watch approach. We will repeat that DSBO has the potential to rally towards the USD 1100 mark, and prices below USD 1000 will find support, especially for forward months like August and September. We heard some trades in India for August cargo at USD 995, and buyers for forward positions today are aiming to cover at USD 980. It may be prudent for Indians to look at forward bean oil prices compared to sunflower oil, which is currently offered at USD 1050.

Black Sea sunflower oil is the most stable commodity at the moment. FOB Ukraine prices are still indicated at USD 945, and they are not panicking when CBOT or MDEX corrects. India priced some volumes yesterday at USD 1050, but later at night, we heard small pricing at 1042, which today the buyers want at USD 1020 against sellers still at 1050. Europe is showing buyers only around USD 1000, which is lower than India, and hence sunflower oil prices may correct a little. Rape seed prices in Europe are still trading at USD 1100, which will give some support to sunflower oil prices. Ukraine will soon harvest its rape seed crop, which will push the crush to process more rape seed vs sun seed, reducing the availability of sun oil even further. The weather is very hot, and it will reduce the yield on sunflower seed; hence, we can expect the sun seed crop to continue to command a premium. All these factors will keep the sunflower oil price in a narrow band, and we suggest Indians buy when prices come close to USD 1000 and exit their longs as it attempts towards the USD 1100 mark.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • June ?/-120
  • July -190/-230, *tdd -220*
  • AS -290/-460
  • OND -290/-430
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • June 0/-
  • July -50/-200
  • AS -260/-430
  • OND -230/-430
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO Athena Indication FOB*
  • JAS 1050 vs 1030 
  • OND 1030 vs 1010 
  • JFM 1035 vs 1015
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3942 (-134)
  • H 3949 / L 3920
  • Vol :  40,860
  • Oln  
  • Jul 885 vs 880
  • Jas 885 vs 877.5
  • Ond 882.5 vs 877.5
  • Jfm 895 vs 887.5
  • Amj 905 vs
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jul 882.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 830 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3990
  • Laurics: Jun 292 (pk) / 292 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 1170
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 1100
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1310
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4430 (+16)
  • Aug 4455 (+17)
  • Sep 4469 (+17)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7638 (-142)
  • Jan 7670  (-142) 
  • Rm 4.692
  • Crude : 73.54
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 950 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 940 vs 900
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1045 vs 1000
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1040 vs 1000
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1045 vs 1020 / June 1050 vs 1030 and July 1055 vs 1035
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 990 vs 960 
  • Currency INR 83.50, RM 4.69, Rub 88.54 and Euro 1.0877


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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