Athena Market Buzz

1500 03062025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ Monday


Good Morning,

MDEX is closed today, and it appears that August, which settled on Friday at RM 4079, could open tomorrow with a slight correction but remain above the RM 4000 mark. India has started receiving some rains, and as temperatures ease, we should see a spike in consumption. Tomorrow, Narendra Modi will become Prime Minister again, and this euphoria is likely to push Indians to spend more in the market, causing highs in stocks, commodities, and more. India's coverage for vegetable oil is less than a month, which will result in more traders shifting to palm oil as prices for soft oils are already too high. Friday was a bullish day, and this momentum is expected to carry forward into this week. As mentioned before, we should hit RM 4250 by this weekend, pushing the flat price of CPO to India to about USD 1000. On Friday, India traded good volumes of CPO around USD 963/965, and ROL traded a few times between USD 935 and 940. Locally, the market is improving as well, with Chennai trading at INR 89,500/- providing consistent margins. We will continue to see buying support, which will support any price corrections. Today, there were no firm offers from any sellers to India, resulting in lackluster trade.

On Friday, CBOT bean oil settled marginally lower, with August settling at 45.71 -20. Today's projection is down by almost 1.2%, with August at 45.22 -56. We expect the volatility to continue, but eventually, we should see good buying support. CBOT should eventually rally towards 47.50, while the basis is expected to correct towards -500 from the current -220. Flat price bean oil indications are around USD 1045, and against this, we find sunflower oil costly. Soybean oil is still the cheapest soft oil and will continue to sell in Indian markets, especially during the rainy season when demand for vegetable oil increases, followed by festive demand. Over the next three months, India will increase vegetable oil stocks to meet Diwali demand, supporting vegetable oil prices at lower levels. We reiterate that bean oil has the potential to rally towards USD 1100, and only after reaching this level will we suggest our readers consider short positions.

Sunflower oil, due to its limited availability, has started commanding a premium over other oils, and origins have begun rejecting lower bids. Destinations, on the other hand, are still hopeful of buying sunflower oil at the price of bean oil, which keeps their local market depressed. Today, India has the cheapest sunflower oil locally, with the best replacement about USD 50 costlier. CIF India pricing ideas today were around USD 1050 for Russian cargo and USD 1060 for Ukraine Origin. Six ports in Europe started the day for JAS at 1060, with buyers looking to purchase around USD 1040. Offers to Turkey are around USD 1000 for the main port, and Izmir last traded at USD 980. China is also looking to buy some sunflower oil, but it is priced over USD 1080. We reiterate that sunflower oil will find resistance only around the USD 1100 mark; until then, trade will trickle only on a need basis. Major ports in India like Chennai and KP have enough sunflower oil, but ports like JNPT and Kandla are dry with no new cheap offers. This supply at major ports will keep the rally in check, but come July or the end of June, we should see good business, with traders actively looking for sunflower oil. We do not suggest our readers go short on sunflower oil at least until the new crop in October 2024.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • June ?/-200
  • July -220/-280
  • AS -400/-490
  • OND -400/-480
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • June ?/-250
  • July -/-300
  • AS -400/-550
  • OND -350/-580
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO 6 ports, FOB*
  • JAS  $1060 vs $1040
  • OND $1035 vs $1015
  • JFM  $1045 vs $1020
  • Palm oil closed today -
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 950 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 940 vs 900
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1055 vs 1010
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1050 vs 1010
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1060 vs 1020 / June 1060 vs 1030 and July 1065 vs 1035
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 1000 vs 980 
  • Currency INR 83.10, RM 4.70, Rub 90.08 and Euro 1.0839


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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