AthenaMarketBuzz

 1530 01052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY 


Good Morning ,


MDEX is closed today for Labor Day, along with other markets, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere. Malaysian exports are experiencing a decline, primarily due to the premium that Palm was commanding over other oils. The Indonesian export duty structure now allows sellers more flexibility to be aggressive, as they can qualify for lower brackets, adding further pressure. The heatwave in Asia is expected to impact consumption and contribute to price reductions. Additionally, with a strong dollar and depreciating INR, there is less interest from buyers to cover Indian demand, further depressing palm prices.

From its peak at RM 4450, there has been a correction to RM 3800, totalling a decline of RM 650 points or over 15%. As previously mentioned, we anticipate prices to continue drifting lower towards RM 3750, where we will suggest Indian buyers to consider long positions between RM 3650-3750. With this healthy correction of over 18%, Palm once again becomes a more cost-effective option, potentially sparking buying interest. However, demand from the Indian side remains lackluster, with trades occurring at a disparity. This trend is expected to persist until we reach the support level of RM 3650, where positive margins and increased business activity may emerge.

We recommend readers who initiate long positions at support levels to exit their positions on the way up towards RM 4000 and consider short positions if prices surpass RM 4250 again. Overall, the market is expected to continue trading within the stated range until a strong weather pattern emerges, potentially involving high heat and crop damage, which could drive prices higher. CNF India indications for CPO were around USD 930 for May, while ROL was offered at approximately USD 30 lower. JAS ROL is already trading at USD 880 levels, with some sellers even suggesting USD 870, indicating good support for forward months. Locally in India, sellers are proposing INR 88,000/- with limited demand.

CBOT Bean oil experienced a significant drop last night, with July down by 136 points at 43.01 and August down by 131 points at 43.32, breaking the expected support level of around 44.50. This development has dashed hopes of a bounce back and set a new resistance level at 50.00, making it challenging for CBOT to surpass. Basis, on the other hand, has remained mostly unchanged, pushing flat prices lower by USD 25/ USD 30 PMT. CNF offers for bean oil in the Indian market were quoted around USD 928-925 for JJ, with May seeking some premium. Locally in India, there has been significant business activity in degum soybean oil around INR 79000 for June shipment, with expectations of more trades around this level. Although CBOT technically appears more favorable for selling, we advise readers to observe the market for the next 2-3 days before taking action, as current levels could potentially bounce back, reaching our target price of DEGUM soybean oil in India around USD 900-920.

Black Sea sunflower oil currently stands as the most stable oil, with no aggressive sellers or chasing buyers. Sunflower oil, once again commanding a premium, may see limited demand into India, estimated at 250,000 mt monthly, aligning with the total oil available for export in Ukraine. With a higher pace of export in the first half of the oil year, there is limited oil available for export, necessitating high prices to meet demand until the new season. Russian forces are making daily gains, and the crop season's outlook come July remains uncertain. The heatwave in Asia typically causes issues in Russia and Ukraine as well, potentially resulting in crop loss come summer. We recommend readers to maintain replacement longs for their needs and consider making long positions for forward months when prices correct towards USD 900 or lower. OND could also become very attractive for new crop sunflower oil around USD 880-860, and readiness to buy may be prudent if such an opportunity arises.

*DUE TO HOLDAY MOST OF THE PRICES ARE INDICATIVE IN NATURE*

  • ARGENTINA-
  • May-450/-535(Fob Slr 849.00¤/Byr 830.25)-18
  • JJ-470/-600(844.58/815.92)-10
  • Aug-600/-700(822.76/800.71)-29
  • Sep-600/-700(828.27/806.22)-27
  • BRAZIL-
  • May-300/-580(882.06/820.33)-8
  • JJY-600/-685(815.92/797.18)-30
  • Aug-650/-730(811.73/794.1)-29
  • Sep-650/-730(817.2/799.6)-27:
  • 6 port Europe sfo jun 965 v 950 jas 965 v 955 ond 950 v 935 jfm 965 v 940
  • Palm oil closed today
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 850 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 965 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 960 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 960 vs 940 / June 955 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 870 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.46, RM 4.77, Rub 93.45 and Euro 1.066



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more