Athena Market Buzz

1530 08052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY 


Good Morning ,


MDEX opened slightly higher, and by midday, July settled at RM 3915, down by 15 points. The day's high for July reached RM 3956, but then selling pressure increased, resulting in a correction. At the time of writing, July Palm stands at RM 3874, down by 53 points. As previously mentioned, we anticipate selling of long positions between RM 3950-4000, with traders booking profits on their positions. Prices may correct towards RM 3750, and one can consider buying once it corrects below that level.

Most traders are not bullish on palm prices, but resistance also lies around our target of RM 4450. We reiterate that once prices test RM 3750, they will likely bounce back with renewed vigor, attempting to breach our RM 4250 resistance level, where we suggest making shorts in the market. Overall, CNF India prices of CPO have once again crossed the USD 950 mark, but there is no significant follow-through demand. Longs may panic and sell aggressively in the local market until we test RM 3750 on MDEX, or in other words, USD 870 CNF India on CPO. One should not panic excessively at prices below USD 900 and can consider buying or making longs below that mark. Exports will be slow, and palm production will be higher, keeping prices in check until we see crude oil surpassing the $100 mark and geopolitics creating logistical issues. In India, locally, ROL was offered around INR 880-885, while buyers were looking for prices around INR 875.

CBOT bean oil settled higher last evening in an attempt to resume levels of 44.50. July settled at 44.41, up by 66 points, and August at 44.66, up by 69 points. At the time of writing, July is trading at 43.97, down by 53 points, and August at 44.22, down by 53 points. We expect bean oil to find support at USD 900-920 CNF, and even with the current CBOT correction, we have a firmer basis, giving us back-to-back CNF India prices of USD 950 for JJ positions. Once again, bean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil have reached similar prices, indicating customer resistance. With a stronger dollar, it will be challenging to market soybean oil higher, at least until July, and we should expect some profit-taking at current levels. We reiterate that CBOT has the potential to reach back to 47.50, but the basis could remain between -500 to -700. On the upside, prices have the potential to test the USD 1050 mark, with the bottom possibly around the USD 900 mark CNF India base. Soybean seed, solvent oil, and meal are mostly trading unchanged, and buyers in India are cautiously considering nearby oils.

Black Sea sunflower oil is the most stable and bullish product in the vegetable oil complex. While there may be volatility in soybean oil or palm, sunflower oil is expected to steadily firm up. War has disrupted the supply chain, and the exact size of the overall crop is uncertain. We expect little sunflower oil available for export from Ukraine, though Russia has a surplus for export. However, the demand for this oil in India is larger. Black Sea sunflower oil is selling at USD 965-970 in Europe, compared to the next best offer of rape oil at USD 1050. Indian markets are incorrectly comparing sunflower oil with palm oil, demanding prices of USD 940 or lower against the best offer around USD 955. Some traders are offering small volumes at a disparity, which we suggest Indian refiners consider buying. FOB prices are stable around the USD 850 mark, as Egypt is also looking to buy sunflower oil with a tender date around 9th May 2024. Sunflower oil is worth acquiring during dips, and one should not panic if other oils experience corrections.



Argentina SBO

  • May ?/-550
  • JJ ?/-580
  • AS -500/-600
  • OND -450/-600
  • Brazil SBO
  • June -540/-650
  • July -520/-580
  • AS -550/-600
  • OND -450/-550
  • 6 ports Europe June $990 vs ?
  • JAS   $995 vs $980 
  • OND $975 vs $955 
  • JFM  $990 vs ?
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3869 (-61) 
  • H 3956 / L 3867
  • Vol : 87,832
  • Oln  
  • May 860 vs
  • Jun 857.5 vs 
  • Jas 855 vs 847.5
  • Ond 857.5 vs 850
  • Jfm 870 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 887.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 802.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3950
  • Laurics: May 295 (pk) / 296 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1170
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1110
  • Rbdpks : May 1295
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4385 (unch)
  • Jul 4395 (-55)
  • Aug 4422 (-53)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7492 (-18)
  • Jan 7474 (-6) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 850 vs 840
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 845 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 965 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 960 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 955 vs 940 / June 955 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 890 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.47, RM 4.74, Rub 91.45 and Euro 1.0750



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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