Athena Market Buzz

 1430 07052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ TUESDAY 


Good Morning ,


Congratulations! The support of RM 3800 has held firm, as has the 200-day moving average. MDEX opened strongly, and by lunchtime, we settled July at RM 3922, up by 60 points. At the time of writing, it continues to trade firmly at RM 3926, up by 64 points. Daily highs reached around RM 3935, and we anticipate prices to continue firming up towards RM 4000. As previously mentioned, levels between RM 3950 to RM 4000 will present excellent opportunities to sell long positions, while prices moving towards RM 4250 or higher will provide opportunities for short positions.

Global tensions are escalating, and with Brent crude oil holding around 83, we can anticipate palm oil to hold at current levels. Renewed demand is evident in China, India, and Pakistan, with India looking to price spot CPO around the USD 950 mark, approximately equivalent to INR 88,500 in ROL. The Indian market is experiencing a disparity in palm products, indicating potential for increased demand.

Malaysian production is not keeping pace with exports, resulting in a slight rise in stocks. However, high temperatures across Asia are expected to curtail consumption, thus limiting any rally beyond RM 4450 for at least the next month. With the onset of rains, Asia is poised for increased consumption, potentially driving prices beyond RM 4750 later in the year. It's worth noting that any correction in palm could find strong buying support around RM 3650-3750, with lower levels being temporary.

CBOT bean oil rebounded from lows, settling July at +76 at 43.84 after reaching a high of 44.11. We anticipate the market to test 44.50 and resume upward momentum towards 47.50. Current levels present attractive opportunities, with little expected correction. Bean oil basis remains mostly unchanged, pushing flat prices higher. CNF India offers for June and July are currently at USD 925, possibly slightly lower, but aggressive selling is not expected. In the local Indian market, good business is observed, particularly in Kandla, with prices ranging between INR 800-810 depending on the position. Beans hinterland is quoted around 47,000 for factory delivery, while local solvent oil is trading firm at INR 86,500. Oil will play a crucial role in crush this season, with occasional support from meal. Due to the heatwave, increased protein demand is expected, making going long on meal at current levels a viable option. On the oil side, levels between USD 900-920 are excellent for making long positions, as we anticipate prices to rally over USD 1000 by July 2024.

Sunflower oil remains stable, with limited seeds in Ukraine and Russia keeping prices stable. Farmers are not aggressive sellers, as most seeds are already committed to crush. Weather will also influence next year's crop. Europe rape seed oil is selling at USD 1050, almost USD 100 higher than the best offer on sunflower oil. Food demand will consume sunflower oil, keeping prices stable. We urge refiners to buy cheap local sunflower oil and continue replacing their requirements. Sunflower oil has the potential to rally like rape oil and test USD 1050 CIF India soon. Prices between USD 900-920 are again excellent opportunities to make long positions, as we do not expect to see these prices before the new crop this year.

  • ARG SBO
  • May -675/-700
  • JJ -610/-700
  • AS -650/-730
  • OND -450/-700
  • BR SBO
  • May -350/-
  • June -530/-690
  • July -570/-710
  • AS -550/-700
  • OND -450/-650
  • 6 ports Europe June 985 vs - 
  • JAS 995 vs 975 
  • OND 970 vs 952,5
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3922 (+60) 
  • H 3935 / L 3860
  • Vol : 42,848
  • Oln  
  • Jun 862.5 vs 857.5
  • Jas 860 vs 857.5
  • Ond 865 vs 860
  • Jfm 875 vs 870
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 892.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 802.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3970
  • Laurics: May 292 (pk) / 294 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1170
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1105
  • Rbdpks : May 1290
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4317 (unch)
  • Jul 4406 (+22)
  • Aug 4427 (+21)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7558 (+162)
  • Jan 7514 (+144) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 850 vs 840
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 960 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 955 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 955 vs 940 / June 955 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.50, RM 4.7365, Rub 91.08 and Euro 1.0760



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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