Athena Market Buzz

 1330 06052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY 


Good Morning ,


MDEX opened marginally higher, and by lunch, we were mostly unchanged, with July settling at +3 at RM 3847. China has returned with improved commitments, and Chinese officials are looking to utilise their unsold houses. This could be seen as a sign of the government's efforts to keep the market stable and seek growth. Crude oil also surged after the peace talks between Israel and Hamas failed, and gold also rose as a result. Indians returned to already hot weather and lower palm prices. CNF India offers for CPO are around USD 930-935 for the spot month and ROL around USD 910-900. It is interesting to note that the inverse in the market has completely disappeared, and with an increase in stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia, we will see forward carry. Traders holding spot longs will get better prices if they wait and sell. BMD has recently reached lows of RM 3800 but quickly bounced back to close above RM 3850. We can see consolidation happening around RM 3800 with a lower shadow at RM 3750. MDEX should receive support from global conflict and increased crude oil prices, and we may once again reach RM 4000 levels. We will reiterate that buyers should wait for prices to correct around RM 3750-3650 in order to make longs, and one can sell back their longs when prices cross RM 3950-4000. If due to conflict prices move higher towards RM 4250 or above, one should be prepared to make shorts in this market. Palm has corrected over 12% in a month but is still higher by 5% if we compare year-to-date, and this 5% should also provide essential support and act as an annual bottom.

CBOT bean oil July corrected again on Friday and settled at -16 at 43.08, which at the time of writing this report is trading at 43.56 +48. Bean oil has corrected more compared to palm oil, and this fact should provide support to soybean oil. CBOT largely should find support around 44.50, and current levels, which are already below 44.50, could see a recovery, and CBOT should trade higher. Basis, on the other hand, is likely to remain between -500 and -700, which should keep flat prices mostly range-bound. CNF India offers for bean oil June and July are already at USD 900-905, and on Friday, we heard good business. This is our target price where we have been suggesting to our readers to make longs. We will repeat that prices between USD 900-920 CNF India for June and July make an excellent long opportunity, and one should not be overly bearish at current levels. Locally in India, beans are finding it hard to compete with imports and are trading in the INR 47000-47200 range hinterland. Solvent oil Indore hinterland is around 86,500 while comparative degum is available at ports around 85,500/-, which is mostly balanced. Prices on bean oil are finding support and are cheaper compared to ROL and other oils. Sunflower oil for the same position is priced higher by at least USD 40, and traders are looking to market the same at a disparity. We will repeat that traders should consider making soya longs, which should give it an opportunity to regain lost share to sunflower oil.

Black Sea sunflower oil is trading stable and is not impacted by falling soybean oil. Freights to India are maintained between USD 130-140, while the freight for smaller vessels to Europe is still around USD 90. This makes Ukraine-origin sunflower oil preferred in Europe and tough to market in India. Ukraine will have just over 800,000 MT more to be shipped in the coming months before the new crop hits the market, which will keep it at a premium over bean oil. New crop sunflower oil will come in the month of September, and with the high temperatures in Asia and Russia, we will see some crop damage. We don't see any aggressive seller right now for the JAS months, and we expect prices to rally further soon. Currently, CNF offers to India are around USD 950-955, comparable to Europe, and Ukraine-origin sunflower oil will not be sold to India. Russian origin, on the other hand, will continue to come to India albeit in smaller volumes, giving the much-needed support to current prices. Offers to India are already around USD 950 to do slightly lower, and as mentioned before, prices between USD 900-920 will make excellent longs in sunflower oil. One should not expect the prices to correct below USD 900 as there is not enough sunflower oil to support such action before next September 2024.



UOB  Apr24 Production Survey

Sabah: ranges from +4% to +8%

Sarawak : ranges from +8% to +12%

PM: ranges from +8% to +12%

Estimated production for Apr24: +7% to +11%


  • ARG SBO
  • May -540N/-580N
  • JJ -600/-680
  • Jul -620/-700
  • AS -580/-680
  • OND -/-650
  • BR SBO
  • May -400N/-600N
  • JJ -580/-650
  • AS -570/-650
  • OND -450/-600
  • 6 ports Europe MJ     $970 vs $960 
  • JAS   $980 vs $965 
  • OND $960 vs  $935
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3847 (+3)
  • H 3871 / L 3829
  • Vol : 20,133
  • Oln 
  • Jun 850 vs 842.5
  • Jas 847.5 vs 842.5
  • Ond 850 vs 845
  • Jfm 865 vs 857.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 885 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 790 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3920
  • Laurics: May 290 (pk) / 292 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1190
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1115
  • Rbdpks : May 1290
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4242 (unch)
  • Jul 4338 (+30)
  • Aug 4363 (+29)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7386 (-4)
  • Jan 7366 (+4) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 840 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 830 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 955 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 950 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 950 vs 940 / June 950 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 890 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.46, RM 4.74, Rub 91.54 and Euro 1.0766



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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