Athena Market Buzz

 1400 30052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ Thursday 


Good Morning,

MDEX opened unchanged, and by lunch, August settled at RM 4006, down 28 points. At the time of writing, August is trading at RM 3878, down 56 points. Palm staged a strong rally yesterday, which was expected. Consolidation around RM 4000 is anticipated, but we now see more strength in this market and expect palm to continue its bull run and try to make new highs. By next week, MDEX is likely to cross the RM 4000 mark consistently, and dips this week should be bought.

Soft oils are firming up despite the board showing a correction, as basis levels have strengthened, pushing flat prices higher. The spread between bean oil and CPO is almost USD 100 PMT for nearby contracts and about USD 50 for forward months. This spread favors palm, and we should see destinations like India and the Middle East continue to consume more palm products compared to soft oils. The RSI for palm is below 50%, and most technical indicators are strong, putting new support around the RM 3800 mark.

We recommend buying corrections towards RM 3750-3800. Once we break RM 4000 and move towards RM 4250, one can exit longs. Between RM 4250-4450, fresh shorts can be considered. Overall, sentiments have turned very supportive with excellent buying in India. Although there are consumption issues in China, with increased exports of SBM, robust growth is expected in July, potentially resulting in fresh highs. Traders creating shorts at current levels may push the market to new highs when they cover their positions, so trading wisely is crucial.

MDEX should eventually recover from today's low of RM 3874 and inch back up towards RM 4000 by the close. CPO in India is offered at USD 955, and ROL is indicated at USD 920. The local market in India opened at INR 87,000/- with little demand in Chennai.

CBOT bean oil settled last night at 46.09, up 36 points. At the time of writing, it is trading lower around yesterday's low at 45.15, down 73 points. Basis levels have improved to even for nearby contracts and -250 for forward months. If CBOT corrects further, basis levels are expected to turn positive. In India, small reseller volumes traded around 1010 for July, with direct sellers around 1020 and 995 for August/September. The local market is slightly firmer due to rupee weakness. May shipment Kandla sellers are today asking INR 86,500/-, after trading at INR 85,500/- and 85,700/- yesterday.

We expect CBOT soybean oil to trade towards 47.50, with basis levels slipping back to -500. The flat price target for bean oil before July 2024 is around USD 1100, making it worth shorting at that level. The firmness of rapeseed oil in Europe and India, along with the high cost of sunflower oil, makes soybean oil the cheapest soft oil, attracting continuous buying interest.

Black Sea sunflower oil opens mostly unchanged today, with offers to India for Russian origin around USD 1050 and Ukraine also asking about the same prices. Indians are not showing interest at these levels as they have cheaper positions being liquidated at a USD 60 disparity on a replacement basis. Indians are unlikely to cover cheaper cargo from elsewhere due to costly replacements, meaning refiners should focus on covering cheaper local oil as much as possible. Higher rapeseed oil prices in Europe and India will push more sunflower oil towards Europe and Turkey for edible purposes.

Indians will need to adjust to paying the premium for sunflower oil and consume the already cheap local oil first. By June 15, most current stock pressure should subside, and India will resume buying for spot and forward months. Dips due to CBOT or MDEX will be momentary, providing opportunities for destinations to make longs. Europe starts mostly firm today with JAS indications around 1055, compared to yesterday's 1050. We repeat that sunflower oil will soon test USD 1100, and one should not hesitate to make longs even at current levels.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • June ?/-250
  • July -270/-350
  • AS -450/-500
  • OND -400/-520
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • June ?/-370
  • July ?/-580
  • AS -400/-610
  • OND -350/-580
  • 6 ports Europe *FOB*
  • June $1045 vs -
  • JAS   $1055 vs $1035 
  • OND $1035 vs $1020 
  • JFM          -  vs $1025
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 4006 (-28)
  • H 4029 / L 3994
  • Vol :  42,497
  • Oln  
  • Jun 890 vs
  • Jul 895 vs 
  • Jas 895 vs 890
  • Ond 895/92.5 vs 887.5
  • Jfm 910 vs 902.5
  • Amj 917.5 vs
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 892.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 830 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 4030
  • Laurics: Jun 291 (pk) / 291 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 1165
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 1095
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1305
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4544  (-44)
  • Aug 4571 (-43)
  • Sep 4585 (-43)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7770 (-56)
  • Jan 7798  (-44) 
  • Rm 4.706
  • Crude : 79.27
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 930 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 925 vs 900
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1050 vs 1010
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1050 vs 1010
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1050 vs 1010 / June 1055 vs 1010 and July 1055 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 1010 vs 980 
  • Currency INR 83.35, RM 4.70, Rub 89.73 and Euro 1.078


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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