Athena Market Buzz

1430 28052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ TUESDAY


Good Morning,

As expected, MDEX is attempting to test the RM 4000 mark, having already reached a day's high of RM 3968. At the time of writing, we are trading at RM 3953, up 83 points. Exports are picking up in Malaysia, and we expect overall May exports to be at least 10% higher, pushing sentiments higher. Palm oil remains the cheapest option for destinations like India and China. With increasing global tensions, consumers are likely to prefer palm oil over other costlier soft oils.

The Indian market is experiencing high temperatures and strong consumption. Local rapeseed oil and refined soybean oil are already surging ahead, leaving enough room for palm oil to rally. CPO to India is already indicated around USD 950-955, and ROL is indicated around USD 915, which is about USD 110 lower than sunflower oil and about USD 1000 lower than bean oil. As mentioned before, MDEX should test the RM 4000 mark this week and consolidate a bit before rallying over RM 4250. We suggest our readers sell only when prices move over RM 4250-4450. Before that, the levels are only attractive for replacing longs. For fresh longs, one should wait for prices to retract towards 3750 or lower and consider longs even for forward months. Technically speaking, the market is giving strong buy signals, which will help push MDEX higher. We do not suggest our readers turn bearish or short the market at current levels.

CBOT bean oil will open today and is indicating a firmer opening. August is trading at 45.48, up 26 points, and we expect the market to test 47.50 soon. CBOT should find resistance only around 52.50, before which we will witness many short rallies and small corrections. Basis, on the other hand, could slip towards -500, which will keep overall flat prices firm. Bean oil CNF India will find resistance around the USD 1100 mark until then it will constantly attract buyers. Soybean oil in India traded for July shipment below the USD 1000 mark a few times, and we heard small volumes for June also getting traded around USD 1010. These prices are below sunflower oil, and customers, especially in WCI, are now switching back to soybean oil by selling their sunflower oil longs. Locally, degummed soybean oil is still being quoted with a USD 30 disparity, but we expect this disparity to be bought by refiners as local oils, especially rapeseed oil, are firmer. We suggest importers not panic and market their longs aggressively; instead, try to sell at replacement.

Black Sea sunflower oil is very firm, especially Ukraine origin, which is being offered to India today at USD 1045 for July shipment. We don't have any sellers today for August or September shipment. Sunflower oil is likely to firm up towards the USD 1100 mark soon, though it will face some resistance as bean oil for July shipment is still cheap. Rapeseed oil in Europe is already touching the USD 1100 mark, sunflower oil 6 ports for JAS are at 1040, and even OND for Europe is indicated at USD 1025. Against this, the cash market's nearby sellers are at USD 1040. Overall, the weather is getting hot, which may impact the yields of sunflower oil seeds in Russia and Ukraine, pushing OND prices to match old crop prices. Until September, we do not have any new supplies of sunflower seeds. Europe will become a net importer starting now until their new crop comes, along with increased demand from Egypt, the Middle East, China, and India, pushing sentiments and prices higher in sunflower oil. The domestic market in India is trading at a disparity; it’s a no-brainer for refiners to make longs in local oil. Turkey is already indicating sunflower oil at USD 1000, and most of the oil will move to Turkey unless destinations like India or China improve.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • June -220/-300
  • July -380/-500
  • AS -400/-620
  • OND -400/-620
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • June +50/-260
  • July -/-450
  • AS -500/-650
  • OND -400/-630
  • 6 ports Europe *FOB ($)*
  • JAS 1040 vs 1015
  • OND 1025 vs 1000
  • JFM 1030 vs 1000
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3946 (+76) 
  • H 3960 / L 3873
  • Vol :  36,026
  • Oln  
  • Jun 870 vs 860
  • Jul 880 vs
  • Jas 880 vs 875 
  • Ond 885 vs 880 
  • Jfm 900 vs 897.5
  • Amj 912.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 885 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 825 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3950
  • Laurics: Jun 289 (pk) / 289 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 1155
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 1085
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1295
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4529 (+34)
  • Aug 4557 (+35)
  • Sep 4571 (+33)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7780 (+158)
  • Jan 7800 (+152) 
  • Rm 4.689
  • Crude : 78.93
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 920 vs 900
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 920 vs 900
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 1040 vs 1000
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 1035 vs 1000
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1045 vs 1000 / June 1045 vs 1000 and July 1050 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 1000 vs 975 
  • Currency INR 83.15, RM 4.69, Rub 88.56 and Euro 1.0879


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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