Athena Market Buzz

1330 20052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ Monday


Good Morning ,


MDEX started on a positive note, with August being the most active month, settling at RM 3904, up 12 points at lunch after reaching a day's high of RM 3929. On Friday, MDEX jumped above the 200-day MA, suggesting a test of the RM 4000 mark. Technical consolidation, profit-taking, and reports of poor export performance will likely keep the market range-bound this week. We expect the week's closing to be at least 2% below Friday's close of RM 3890, around RM 3800 this weekend.

India is facing an excessive heatwave, exports between May 1-20 are showing a 10% deceleration, and emerging COVID-19 cases in Singapore, along with reduced vegetable oil consumption in destination countries like India, China, Pakistan, and the Middle East, will pressure high prices. On the other hand, strong crude oil prices due to Iran’s president's passing and the Saudi king's illness will keep funds on the long side, hoping for Brent to test the 100 mark. This should keep the bottom of RM 3650 supported for the next two weeks. We believe that RM 4000 will be used to exit longs. Anyone looking to create shorts in palm oil should consider doing so when prices cross the RM 4250 mark. A major trend reversal is not expected for at least the next two months. Once we reach the rainy season, we can analyze the soft oil seeds crop, July macroeconomics, and potential Fed interest cuts to decide on future price movements.

For CNF India, offers for CPO were around USD 945, and ROL was indicated at the USD 900 mark with little to no trade. Dalian was trading higher, and India too, after waiting for the first of the day, should price near by cargo.

CBOT bean oil settled firm on Friday with July +75 at 45.25 and August +74 at 45.55, which at the time of writing is trading marginally higher. Floods and expectations of crop damage pushed the basis higher, resulting in a jump of over 20-25 bucks on flat prices. CNF India is once again over the USD 1000 mark, with offers for JJAS around USD 1010. These prices are higher than palm oil, sunflower oil, and even local soft oil in India, hence aggressive support is not expected immediately. Landed prices to Kandla at USD 1000 work out to around INR 85,300, while the local market indicates USD 82,500, creating a disparity of USD 35 PMT with the current exchange rate. We expect strong support around 44.50 CBOT, and between 42.50-44.50 it becomes a buy until 47.50, over which we suggest exiting longs. Shorts can be made when we cross the 50.00 mark, with strong resistance at 52.50. Basis trading at -380 for near term and -500 for AS could slide as the Brazil harvest completes, keeping flat prices mostly in check. We expect degummed soybean oil on the upside to find resistance around 1050-1075, with support around USD 950.

Black Sea sunflower oil from Ukraine traded to India around USD 980-985 for July-August, with current indications around USD 995. Sunflower oil is pushing higher as expected, and we could see this rally last towards the USD 1050 mark. There is not enough sunflower oil in the market, which could push offers higher. Europe trading higher on rapeseeds will also help push sunflower oil prices up. Sunflower oil will trade higher over USD 1000 only when short covering happens. Paper markets will move higher faster, but the commercial market will take some time. We expect sunflower oil to make seasonal highs of USD 1050 by July and advise traders to buy current offers still below USD 1000. Indians are advised not to market sunflower oil at a disparity but to cover local oils that are still available cheaply. Europe is mostly on holiday today and will resume working tomorrow. We can expect prices to move higher once Europe opens and short covering in six ports should take prices higher.


  • Argentina SBO
  • June -380/-430, tdd -400
  • July -450/-500
  • AS -500/-630
  • OND -570/-650
  • Brazil SBO
  • June -50/-300
  • July -450/-580
  • AS -450/-
  • OND -350/-650
  • 6 ports Europe indicative JAS 1010 vs 995
  • OND 995 vs 970
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3904 (+12) 
  • H 3929 / L 3888
  • Vol :   27,471
  • Oln  
  • Jun 870 vs 
  • Jas 872.5 vs 865  
  • Ond 877.5 vs 870 
  • Jfm 890 vs 885 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 887.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 822.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3930
  • Laurics: Jun 288 (pk) / 289 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 1145
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 1080
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1280
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 4524 (-3)
  • Aug 4550 (-4)
  • Sep 4567 (-7)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7652 (+102)
  • Jan 7658 (+110) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 885 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 880 vs 850
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 990 vs 965
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 985 vs 960
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 1000 vs 980 / June 995 vs — and July 1000 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 930 vs 900 
  • Currency INR 83.22, RM 4.68, Rub 91.08 and Euro 1.0876



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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