Athena Market Buzz

1530 10052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ FRIDAY


Good Morning ,


Happy friday and have a great weekend. 


MDEX opened on a lower note, with July standing at RM 3790, down by 41 points by lunchtime, marking a decline of over 1%. Subsequently, post lunch, we witnessed further selling pressure, attributed to an overnight sell-off in bean oil. Palm oil dipped to a low of RM 3767, where some bargain hunting ensued, leading to a settlement of July at RM 3810, down by 21 points. As previously stated, levels between RM 3750-3650 should be utilized for long positions, while levels above RM 3950 to RM 4000 can be considered for exiting longs, with levels exceeding RM 4250 potentially signaling fresh short opportunities.

Palm production is on the rise, accompanied by a decrease in exports and a likely increase in stocks. This information is widely acknowledged, with traders already factoring it into forward markets. Palm still offers a discount for forward months, and if ROL tests USD 850 for JJ, it could become attractive for long positions. CPO, on the other hand, may command a slightly higher premium, but USD 875 for CPO remains attractive. With Indians experiencing heat and reduced edible oil consumption, a strong rally is unlikely between now and July 2024. Post-July, weather patterns in Malaysia and Indonesia will clarify the situation, with monsoons cooling the regions and supporting consumption. Hence, there is robust support at MR 3450 and resistance between RM 4250 and RM 4450 until August 2024. In India, CPO traded at small volumes around USD 925 and ROL at 895, with forward months offered for ROL at 875 but without aggressive trades.

Funds anticipate a larger-than-normal crop in today's USDA report, while commercials and farmers are not enthusiastic sellers. CBOT corrected for July at 42.69, down by 115 points, while the basis improved to -300, resulting in little change to flat prices. CNF India offers for bean oil range between USD 955-960, exceeding our target price of USD 900-920. As previously indicated, we anticipate bean oil to rally over the USD 1000 mark, as evidenced by Egypt paying USD 994 for bean oil. India should also follow suit, with keen buyers likely to emerge if the flat price nears 900. Tonight's USDA report might pleasantly surprise the commercials, potentially leading to aggressive buybacks and a rally back towards 44.50 for CBOT bean oil. Traders are advised to remain on the sidelines and avoid panic selling until either the flat price reaches USD 1000 CNF India or CBOT returns to 47.50.

Russia and parts of Europe and Ukraine are closed today but will resume full operations come Monday. Black Sea sunflower oil remains firm, with no reports of cheap sellers. Indian buyers are keen to pay USD 930-935, but sellers are only offering around USD 945. Despite local market disparity, there is currently no significant demand, with buyers opting to wait. However, a bounce back is expected in the local market, with prices projected to move towards INR 87,000 soon from the current levels of INR 84,500. Europe's consumption of costly rape oil and cheaper sunflower oil from Ukraine will likely keep overall prices well-supported. Sunflower oil trading to Egypt at the USD 1000 mark indicates that other destinations may follow suit soon.

  • Argentina SBO
  • June -300/-400
  • July -370/-450
  • AS -320/-460
  • OND -350/-460
  • Brazil SBO
  • June -/-350
  • July -300/-400
  • AS -370/-450
  • OND -/-420
  • 6 ports Europe JAS 990 vs 980
  • OND 967.5-970 vs 955
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3810 (-21) 
  • H 3848 / L 3767
  • Vol :  68,017
  • Oln  
  • May 850 vs
  • Jun 850 vs 
  • Jas 845 vs 837.5
  • Ond 850 vs 842.5
  • Jfm 865 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 872.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 797.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3900
  • Laurics: May 292 (pk) / 294 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1155
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1095
  • Rbdpks : May 1285
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4201 (unch)
  • Jul 4309 (+45)
  • Aug 4337 (+44)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7286 (-152)
  • Jan 7302 (-116) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 850 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 820
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 965 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 960 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 955 vs 940 / June 955 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 890 vs 880 
  • Currency INR 83.47, RM 4.74, Rub 91.94 and Euro 1.0778



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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