Athena Market Buzz

 


1530 02052025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ Thursday 


Good Morning ,


-MDEX experienced a slight dip in its opening, followed by a midday recovery with July trading at RM 3828+10. However, post-lunch, prices slipped to lows around RM 3801 before rebounding to the day's high of RM 3840+22. The market exhibits choppy behaviour at these levels, suggesting the possibility of a minor recovery. However, we anticipate a buying opportunity to arise below RM 3700, with ideal long positions between RM 3700-3600. Resistance may be encountered around RM 4000, signaling a point to exit long positions and prepare for shorting as prices approach RM 4250 or higher.

Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate lower levels, and prices trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggest further weakness. Moreover, elevated temperatures in key consumer countries like India are expected to constrain consumption, while increased availability of competing oils will likely pressure palm oil prices downward. Additionally, the depreciation of crude oil in international markets is poised to adversely affect palm oil.

In India, offers for CPO spot months stand at around USD 930, equivalent to local prices of INR 88,000/- Ex-T and Chennai, with sellers holding at current levels due to tariff adjustments. Despite potential positive activity, caution is advised at current levels.

-Meanwhile, CBOT soybean oil settled at July 43.24 +25, currently trading at 43.51+25. Basis settled higher, with sellers showing activity around -400 and -550 for MJJ respectively. Strong trades were observed in India for June and July at USD 921 and 915, later increasing to 925 and 918. Local markets are stable at INR 79,000/-, plus duty at WCI. Given these dynamics, bean oil presents a favourable buying opportunity within the USD 900-920 range, with expectations of continued stability and good business in India.

-Concerning Sunflower oil, the ongoing conflict is disrupting exports, leading to dwindling stocks due to healthy export rates in recent months. Sunflower oil now commands a premium over degum soybean oil, potentially impacting consumption to 300,000 mt in the rainy season and 250,000 mt in the summers. India is expected to import 1.3 million mt of sunflower oil from April to September to meet demand, supporting the firmness of the sunflower oil complex. As prices approach USD 900-920, securing pricing, especially for JJA contracts, is advisable. Although current focus in India is on bean oil, the market sentiment is expected to shift as CBOT stabilizes and flat price bean oil experiences increased demand. Long positions are encouraged to remain patient for potential price appreciation.


  • ARG SBO
  • May -400N/-600
  • JJ -550/-650
  • AS -550/-680
  • OND -550/-600
  • BR SBO
  • May -400N/-690
  • JJ -600/-680
  • AS -650/-750
  • OND ?/-700
  • 6 ports Europe MJ     $965 vs -
  • JAS   $975 vs $960
  • OND $950 vs $935 
  • JFM  $970 vs - 
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3844 (+26)
  • H 3850 / L 3801
  • Vol : 48820
  • Oln 
  • May 862.5 vs
  • Jun 857.5 vs 
  • Jas 847.5/? vs 842.5
  • Ond 852.5 vs 845/47.5
  • Jfm 867.5 vs 857.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jun 877.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 785 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3930
  • Laurics: May 290 (pk) / 293(pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1185
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1110
  • Rbdpks : May 1285
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4250 (-7)
  • Jul 4324 (-2)
  • Aug 4345 (-9)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicative  FOB 840 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 830 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 960 vs 945
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 955 vs 940
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 955 vs 940 / June 950 vs — and July 960 vs—
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 880 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.46, RM 4.77, Rub 93.45 and Euro 1.066



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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