AthenaMarket Buzz

1530 01042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY


Good Morning ,


MDEX started the day on a strong note, with June settling at RM 4233 +39 by lunchtime, reaching a high of RM 4259, and currently trading at RM 4250 +56. Despite India's cautious purchasing behavior, palm oil remains firm and stable. We anticipate a firm market throughout April, with a possible correction by late April to early May. The consolidation between RM 4250-4450 is expected to be significant, providing traders with opportunities to exit long positions and initiate fresh shorts. With the RSI currently below 60%, there is potential for further technical buying at these levels, possibly pushing June to test RM 4300 by tomorrow. Shorts should maintain a stop loss at RM 4500 and cover once we test RM 4000. For the AMJ period, prices are likely to remain range-bound, with an upper range at RM 4450 and a lower range at RM 3700. Inventories in India are dwindling, with overall Chinese stocks down by about 8% to 458,000 MT. CPO to India was offered today at RM 1030 for nearby contracts, with some trades reported at RM 1025. ROL, on the other hand, was indicated at USD 1000, with buyers looking to purchase around USD 980.

CBOT Bean oil was closed for a long weekend and is expected to resume trading today. The firmer palm oil market is likely to support CBOT recovery, with expectations of testing the 50.00 mark. At the time of this report, July is trading at 49.06 +58, with the basis mostly unchanged. CNF India flat prices for MJJ are hovering around the USD 1000 mark, now on par with ROL but still cheaper than CPO. Despite Indians importing large volumes of sunflower oil, initial March calculations show sun oil imports at around 440,000 MT compared to only 225,000 MT for Bean oil. Demand for bean oil is expected to emerge once it becomes competitive with sunflower oil. Consequently, while pressure from other oils is anticipated on a flat price basis, soybean oil is expected to rally and test the USD 1100 CNF India mark. MJJ bean oil will be attractive to buy on dips, and if prices dip below USD 950, traders should consider long positions. In India, demand for bean oil is promising today, with spot oils available for trading with margins, though forward months remain unquoted.


Black Sea sunflower oil to India has traded several times around USD 960-965, being the cheapest soft oil option. With large imports arriving in March (440,000 MT), April arrivals are expected to be around 350,000 MT. Near-term oil remains in demand, with sunflower oil replacing other oils, including palm, in consumption. If sunflower oil prices correct below USD 950, it will become attractive for near-term long positions, and even at current prices, going long for JAS appears favorable. Rape seed oil prices in Europe are trading above USD 1040 PMT, which will further stimulate sunflower oil consumption. We do not advise readers to remain short on sunflower oil but encourage them to buy and replenish stocks. Some traders hedging sunflower oil longs into palm could pose risks, hence we recommend buying sunflower oil independently without linking it to other oils.


Malaysia Palm Oil Export for (1-31 March'24)


ITS: 1,333,138 vs 1,106,054 ,+227,084, +20.53%


AMSPEC: 1,292,130 vs 1,000,348 ,+291,782 , +29.17%

  • Offers for pricing in India April -600 BOK
  • MAY -710 BOK
  • JJ -760 BONN
  • 6 ports Europe closed today
  • Palm Oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4266 (+72)
  • H 4269 / L 4201
  • Vol :  59,947
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 960 vs 47.5/50
  • Jun 950 vs 
  • Jas 905 vs 900 
  • Ond 887.5 vs 880
  • Jfm 887.5 vs 880
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 960 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 810 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4400
  • Laurics: Apr 335 (pk) / 335 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1310
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1250
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1410
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4857 (+62)
  • Jul 4911 (+63)
  • Aug 4917 (+63)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8328 (+234)
  • Sep 7738 (+172)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 850 vs 810
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 810
  • Spain indicated for April May at USD 955 vs 930
  • Italy indicated for April may at USD 950 vs —
  • CIF Lw India traded at USD 960 now indicative offers for May / June 970 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 885 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.33, RM 4.72, Rub 92.38 and Euro 1.0783



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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