ATHENABUZZ

1600 19042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ FRIDAY


Good Morning,

Mdex opened steadily, buoyed by overnight concerns about potential conflict escalation in the Middle East, which initially stabilized palm prices and prompted a rally in gold and the dollar. However, once sources confirmed the failure of a drone attack against Iran, leading to de-escalation of tensions, the market took a downturn. Mdex hit July lows today at RM 3886 but managed to settle slightly higher around RM 3928. This marks the second consecutive day of closing below the RM 4000 mark. If Monday fails to breach RM 4000, we should brace for prices to test RM 3750.

India remained relatively quiet over the past two days, with forward ROL offers slipping below USD 900 for JAS. While some sellers were eager to sell spot cargo even at USD 950, there hasn't been significant buyer interest. Locally, sellers are now asking for INR 920 for imported ROL and are willing to negotiate lower prices for larger volumes, though interest remains limited. We advise traders to continue exiting shorts and consider buying on dips to eventually square their positions around RM 3750. Further declines could prompt taking positions on the long side. Geopolitical tensions are likely to influence overall sentiment and potentially drive crude oil prices higher. Forward months palm is expected to become attractive, even for bio-diesel, and with improved food demand, prices are anticipated to align with forecasted trading ranges. The recent rally in Mdex from RM 3450 to 4450 followed by a correction suggests stabilization around RM 3750, with dips from this level seen as opportunities to initiate long positions.

CBOT bean oil settled with July at 44.66 -90 and Aug -86 at 44.88, showing a decline again, with July at 44.41-35 and Aug 44.65 -23 at the time of writing. Despite expectations of support around 44.50, the market continues to correct, with no demand from China. Geopolitical tensions initially lent some support, but cautious trading is anticipated as the weekend approaches, with short-positioned funds likely aiming to keep prices and sentiment low. Palm's lower close continues to pressure bean oil, and with CNF offers to India between USD 970 for May and 960 for JJ, buyers may start looking at USD 920 for India. Prices between USD 900-950 are becoming interesting for long positions, with another rally towards USD 1050 expected soon. Factors like summer months, dryness, and low crops in Russia/Ukraine are expected to keep supply in check, while demand from destinations like the Middle East and India may pick up at lower price levels. Locally, degum soybean oil prices hover around INR 85,000-86,000 for May shipments, with soybean seed prices around MSP, as the market remains subdued heading into the weekend.

Sunflower oil remains a stable market, with no aggressive selling observed. Buyers are evaluating bean oil prices to determine a fair value for sunflower oil. Sunseeds are being consumed rapidly, and supply is not expected to increase before the next crop. Weather forecasts predict a strong summer, potentially reducing next year's crop, which may continue to dampen selling interest. Indian traders are advised to maintain positions for spot months and consider making longs for MJJ months if prices fall around USD 920-900. Locally in India, interest in sunflower oil remains subdued as degum soybean oil has become cheaper, and most demand for sunflower oil now comes from direct consumers.




  • ARG SBO
  • May -400/-500
  • June -480/-650
  • AS -540/-600
  • OND -450/-600
  • BR SBO
  • May -250/-500
  • June -/-670
  • AS -550/-670
  • OND -/-620
  • 6 ports
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jul 3928 (-56)
  • H 4040 / L 3886
  • Vol : 97,851
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 910 vs 
  • Jun 885 vs 
  • Jas 850 vs 845
  • Ond 845 vs 837.5
  • Jfm 850 vs 845 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 910 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 782.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4130
  • Laurics: May 320 (pk) / 322 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1260
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1190
  • Rbdpks : May 1360
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4395 (-17)
  • Jul 4450 (-16)
  • Aug 4471 (-17)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7814 (-54)
  • Sep 7382 (-72)
  • SUNOIL EU dlrs tonne extank six ports sellers option
  • May24/Jun24 975.00 +0.00
  • Jul24/Sep24 990.00 +0.00
  • Oct24/Dec24 975.00 +0.00
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs 830
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 955 vs 940
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 950 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 960 vs 940 / June 955 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 870 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.44, RM 4.78, Rub 93.17 and Euro 1.0643



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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