ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1530 09042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ TUESDAY


Good Morning 



Happy Hindu New Year and Chetra Navratri to everyone!

The MDEX started the day lower, taking cues from last night's CBOT close. By midday, we saw a settling at RM 4311 with a slight increase of +16 for June. At the time of writing, it's trading at RM 4323, up by +28. As anticipated, the resistance at RM 4450 continues to hold, and the current consolidation phase is expected to garner substantial support around the RM 4000 mark. The market sentiment remains positive, with customers showing willingness to pay higher prices for Palm oil, creating an overall friendly atmosphere. Throughout April, we anticipate a firm market, trading within the range of RM 4000-4400. In the event of aggressive selling pushing us below the RM 4000 support level, one could consider long positions for forward months between RM 4000-RM 3750.

From a technical standpoint, the moving averages suggest a strong buy, with the RSI indicating levels above 50%, providing bullish support to the market. Malaysian 1-9 exports have shown encouraging figures, despite countries like India and China rationing their palm demand. However, due to limitations in soft oil processing capacity, they will continue to import palm products. India is projected to maintain purchases of over 600,000 mt of palm products per month, along with about 500,000 mt of soft oils, with a significant portion allocated to sunflower oil.

Today, CPO to India was offered at USD 1050 with ROL around USD 1020, although major trades have yet to be confirmed. Locally, sellers in ROL at Chennai are offering at a disparity of USD 20, but there hasn't been significant buyer interest noted. Yesterday, Chennai traded about 2000 mt at INR 96,000/- ROL, and similar offers can be found today as well.

CBOT bean oil experienced a correction last night in triple digits, but basis moved higher to support cash prices. July settled last night at -94 at 48.45, with basis for May moving higher to -570, pushing flat prices up by USD 10-15 for nearby contracts. CNF India offers for April stood at USD 1035, May at 1020, and June at 1008. In comparison, local market sellers were asking for a price of INR 89,000/- duty paid, resulting in a replacement disparity of at least USD 20.

Rapeseed crops are emerging in Rajasthan and other parts of India, trading below MSP. Soybeans in the hinterland are also trading around INR 48,000/-, slightly lower than their season high of 52,000/- but higher than recent lows. We anticipate momentum to persist, with CBOT eventually trending towards 52.50 before retracing towards 46.50. We advise our buyers not to be overly bearish on flat prices, as we anticipate India CNF prices could reach as high as USD 1100. We still foresee potential for prices to rally another 50-60, with downside protection towards USD 925 in India.

Sunflower oil, which has gained market share, is unlikely to cause significant damage due to limited processing capacity in India. Consequently, we anticipate stable but low demand for soybean oil in India.

Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, with forwards starting to trade at a premium. With the current export pace, we can expect only 4 million MT of seeds left in Ukraine, of which only 1.2 million will be available for export. This is likely to drive prices higher as demand is rationed. India is expected to continue purchasing sunflower oil, leveraging its affordability. Given the processing capacity limitations, sunflower oil prices need not trade lower. Europe, facing a shortage of sunseed, is increasingly reliant on Ukrainian-origin sunflower oil, which should keep prices well supported. Europe is currently offered at USD 970, with buyers at USD 950. Several ports in Europe have traded May contracts at 970, with further buyers quoting at the same level. We advise buyers not to delay in securing their cargo, suggesting they acquire and replace it promptly.

  • ARG SBO
  • Apr -520/-730
  • May -570/-780
  • JJ -720/-850
  • OND -550/-750
  • BR SBO
  • Apr -/-620
  • May -520/-790
  • MJJ -640/-850
  • JJ -700/-880
  • 6 port Europe MJ    $980 vs $975 
  • JAS  $990 vs $985 traded 985
  • OND $985 vs $960
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4311 (+16)
  • H 4324 / L 4261
  • Vol :  39,078
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 970 vs 960
  • Jun 947.5/45 vs 942.5
  • Jas 912.5 vs 907.5
  • Ond 892.5 vs 887.5
  • Jfm 892.5 vs 885
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 972.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 822.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4520
  • Laurics: Apr 339 (pk) / 339 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1330
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1260
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1430
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4808 (+18)
  • Jul 4863 (+18)
  • Aug 4873 (+15)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8212 (-130)
  • Sep 7878 (+18)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 880 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 870 vs 830
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 975 vs 960
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 970 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 970 vs 950 / June 980 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 910 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.19, RM 4.75, Rub 92.66 and Euro 1.0863



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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