ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

 


1600 17042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY


Good Morning,


Mdex commenced trading on a downtrend today, with a lunchtime decline of 2%, reaching July lows at RM 3974. As of writing this report, the pressure persists, with Mdex at RM 3999, down by 1.84% or RM 75. Our analysis holds true regarding RM 4450 as a significant resistance level. We advised traders to initiate short positions around this level and recommended closing those shorts yesterday to secure profits, anticipating support at RM 4050. Unfortunately, RM 4000 did not hold as a supportive level as expected.

We continue to advise our readers to consider closing short positions around current levels. Further downward correction towards RM 3750 may present an opportunity to initiate long positions. In the short term, prices may attempt to test RM 4250 in Palm, but it may revert to a favorable shorting opportunity thereafter.

Reiterating our stance, we anticipate the year 2024 to fluctuate between RM 3250 - RM 4450, with a variance of approximately 2% on both sides. Macro factors, particularly excess oil availability, may lead to trading spreads resembling pre-COVID conditions, with Palm emerging as the most economical oil.

In CNF India, offers for April are circulating around USD 960, with bids slightly lower. Locally in India, the ROL is trading between INR 920-925 ex Chennai, while Kandla trades about INR 2000 higher. The robust activity in local markets suggests a potential resurgence in Mdex once further corrections occur. It's essential to monitor today's closing; a close above RM 4000 may signal another opportunity to sell long positions.

CBOT bean oil settled lower, with July down by 53 at 45.48 and August at 45.69, also down by 53. Despite our expectation of support around 44.50, CBOT is experiencing downward pressure. On the other hand, basis has shown improvement, pushing flat prices mostly unchanged to USD 2-3 higher. Dollar strength poses a risk to commodities, with INR already at 83.7 and expected to test 84.00 soon.

In CNF India, bean oil prices range between USD 965 to 960, rendering it cheaper compared to sunflower oil. India is trading substantial volumes of bean oil at current levels, indicating anticipation of this correction. The decline in Soybean futures has pushed commodity prices to recent lows, with the Dollar trading at annual highs. Weather conditions affecting harvest, coupled with reports of strong rains in Dubai, may create a tug of war at current levels.

Black Sea sunflower oil prices remain stable, with India engaging in transactions at USD 970 for spot and May deliveries. Locally, the Indian market is active, but the depreciation of INR against the dollar limits traders' capacity to match local bids. In Europe, offers for sunflower oil hover around USD 960, while buyers seek to purchase at USD 940. We anticipate the correction in sunflower oil prices to conclude shortly, with prices between USD 920-950 presenting an attractive ownership opportunity.

Given India's unmet demand for sunflower oil, estimated at 1 million MT for the next four months, procurement remains challenging amidst current market conditions.



  • ARG SBO
  • May -430/-510
  • June-550/-600
  • AS -500/-620
  • OND -520/-600
  • BR SBO
  • May -350/-450
  • JJ -500/-620
  • AS -/-590
  • OND -/-590
  • 6 Ports MJ     $970 vs $950
  • JAS   $985 vs $960
  • OND  $975 vs $950
  • Palm Bmd : Jul 4014 (-60) 
  • H 4093 / L 3974
  • Vol : 122,575
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 920 vs 
  • Jun 900 vs 
  • Jas 862.5 vs 857.5
  • Ond 857.5 vs 852.5
  • Jfm 862.5 vs 855  
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 920 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 790 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr/May 4200
  • Laurics: May 320 (pk) / 323 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1260
  • Rbdpkoln: May 1190
  • Rbdpks : May 1360
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4473 (-18)
  • Jul 4527 (-21)
  • Aug 4552 (-17)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7890 (-196)
  • Sep 7458 (-186)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 850 vs 830
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 850 vs 830
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 960 vs 940
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 955 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 970 vs 960 / June 975 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 870 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.60, RM 4.79, Rub 94.29 and Euro 1.0644



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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