Athena Market Buzz

1530 15042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY


Good Morning,


- MDEX commenced trading on a lower note, showing minimal response to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Crude oil prices also dipped slightly, with Brent crude hovering below the $90 mark. While President Herzog's efforts to pacify the situation have eased concerns, the possibility of retaliatory actions remains, potentially driving crude oil prices towards $100. Such developments have heightened apprehensions among commodity traders.

Indian markets witnessed active trading activity last evening despite being a Sunday. However, the current sentiment in MDEX for June contracts, trading below RM 4200 at RM 4199 -83, lacks the previous fervor. Anticipated support lies around RM 4050, with a subsequent rebound expected to test the resistance at RM 4450. Indian markets saw ROL trading around USD 1005, while CPO prices were indicated around USD 1040, with offers to do at 1035.

Locally, the market is trading volumes at a parity of USD 985, and the disparity in the local market could diminish as soft oil prices remain firm. Despite a 10% increase in Malaysian exports, expectations of enhanced oil availability from Indonesia may mitigate upward price pressure. RSI currently stands at 56%, indicating potential downward pressure on prices, with support likely to materialize only around RM 4050. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips rather than adopting an overly bearish outlook based on macroeconomic factors.

- Funds maintain a short position in soybeans, but with escalating war tensions, we anticipate funds exiting these short positions. The Federal Reserve seems reluctant to cut interest rates, citing factors such as increased crude oil prices, higher gold prices, and a gradual rise in vegetable oil prices. Such indications suggest a bullish stance, as any rate cuts in the future may further bolster prices, potentially revisiting pre-COVID levels. Bean oil CBOT is expected to remain above $44.50 for most of the months, eventually targeting $52.50.

Basis remains mostly unchanged around -600 for JAS, providing support to flat prices. CNF India offers started at USD 985 for most positions, with improved risk appetite expected if prices correct towards USD 950. Indian consumers, having reduced their oil consumption, may return to purchase soybean oil during corrections, as sunflower oil prices are anticipated to remain relatively stable. Soybean oil holds the potential to rally towards USD 1100, albeit facing resistance and consolidation around the USD 1000 mark. Some traders are engaging in bean oil to palm oil spread trading, further supporting soybean oil prices.

- Ukraine and Russia are rapidly consuming their sunflower seed reserves, likely leading to a reduction in crush in the coming months, thereby limiting oil availability. Sunflower oil prices to India remain stable, hovering around the USD 1000 mark. European markets are turning to Ukraine for sunflower oil supply as rapeseed oil prices increase. Biofuel mandates and geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain sunflower oil prices. It is advisable for destinations not to overtrade in sunflower oil and maintain healthy stock levels. Replacement buying is recommended, with resistance expected only around USD 1050-1060 CNF India basis.


  • *ARG SBO*
  • May -570/-600
  • JJ -620/-650
  • July-640/-690
  • AS -550/-660
  • OND -510/-650
  • *BR SBO*
  • May -300/-450
  • JJ -550/-700
  • AS ?/-680
  • OND ?/-650
  • 6 ports Europe 
  • MJ 990 vs 960
  • JAS 1000 vs 970
  • OND 990 vs 960
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4202 (-80)
  • H 4278 / L 4183
  • Vol : 90,982
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 947.5 vs 
  • Jun 927.5 vs 
  • Jas 990 vs 885
  • Ond 875 vs 867.5
  • Jfm 875 vs 867..5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 947.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 805 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4400
  • Laurics: Apr 335 (pk) / 336 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1320
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1250
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1420
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4607 (+18)
  • Jul 4660 (+15)
  • Aug 4681 (+17)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8084 (-126)
  • Sep 7664 (-148)
  • Rm 4.777
  • Crude : 84.72
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 885 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 880 vs 840
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 985 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 980 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 980 vs 960 / June 985 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 910 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.40, RM 4.77, Rub 93.54 and Euro 1.0660



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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