Athena Market Buzz

1530 12042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ FRIDAY


Good Morning,


Greetings and Have a good weekend. 

Today's trading session at Mdex commenced under pressure influenced by overnight movements in CBOT bean oil futures. By midday, the market had already experienced a decline of 63 points for the June contract, settling at RM 4255, eventually closing at RM 4279-39. Palm oil prices remained under consolidation, maintaining a higher cost compared to other oils, with RM 4450 proving to be a strong resistance level. Sentiments across other markets were subdued as the USDA opted not to reduce the Brazil crop forecast, and the Federal Reserve showed reluctance to cut interest rates.

Issues surrounding liquidity and subdued demand at prevailing price levels prompted hedgers to offload positions in the Mdex. However, a rebound was witnessed after hitting a daily low of MR 4230 for June, driven by improved sentiments and robust business activity with China. Reports of strong demand from China at lower price levels provided support to the market, with RM 4000 expected to serve as a substantial support level for the June contract before any potential rally.

In the international market, CPO trading in CNF India was reported at USD 1040, slightly lower than initial offers at USD 1050, with Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (RBD) palm oil attracting interest around the USD 1000 mark against the best offer of around 1010. Locally, there were no reports of transactions in Chennai or Kandla, with sellers quoting prices at INR 95500, although demand remained absent.

Anticipating a recovery in Mdex on Monday, following a potential rebound in CBOT bean oil from yesterday's lows, renewed buying interest is expected to emerge. The USDA's release of mostly neutral data surprised many by maintaining the Brazil crop estimate at 155, contrasting with projections by other agencies at 147. Market volatility yesterday stemmed from inflation concerns and diminishing hopes of an interest rate cut.

China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 1% decrease, indicating a stagnant economy, while India exhibited increased demand for vegetable oils. In CNF India, offers for bean oil were USD 10-15 lower than April's levels, with expectations of further decreases. Conversely, sunflower oil commanded a premium amid escalating tensions, with offers around USD 980.

Bean oil is now competitively priced compared to sunflower oil for forward contracts, prompting interest in degummed soybean oil. Ukrainian crushing activity has slowed due to difficulties in sourcing sunflower seeds, expected to reduce from 1.2 million MT per month to 800,000 MT, resulting in reduced oil availability for export. Consequently, forwards are anticipated to command premiums over spot prices, potentially altering the price dynamics between sunflower and other oils.

Despite European consumption of expensive rapeseed oil providing support to sunflower oil prices, we advise against overly bearish sentiments. Indian consumption strength is evident, with reduced stocks despite record imports of sunflower oil. Monthly consumption in India matches available export volumes from Ukraine. Russian oil may fill gaps in China and India, with implications for Europe and the Middle East. With ongoing conflicts targeting infrastructure, we recommend destinations avoid remaining vacant.

  • ARG SBO
  • Apr -540/-600
  • JJ -600/-690
  • AS -550/-690
  • OND ?/-620
  • May tdd -580, -610
  • BR SBO
  • Apr ?/-540
  • May ?/-450
  • JJ -550/-690
  • AS ?/-680
  • OND ?/-630
  • 6 ports Europe MJ    $980 vs $965
  • JAS  $990 vs $975
  • OND $975 vs $960
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4279 (-39)
  • H 4286 / L 4230
  • Vol :  66,678
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 962.5 vs 955
  • Jun 937.5 vs 927.5/30
  • Jas 905 vs 900
  • Ond 887.5 vs 877.5
  • Jfm 885 vs 877.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 962.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 815 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4500
  • Laurics: Apr 336 (pk) / 337 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1325
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1255
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1425
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4617 (+15)
  • Jul 4672 (+15)
  • Aug 4685 (+8)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8176 (-46)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 880 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 875 vs 840
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 980 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 970 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 970 vs 960 / June 980 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.44, RM 4.76, Rub 93.42 and Euro 1.0647



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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