Athena Market Buzz

1530 11042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ THURSDAY


Good Morning 




Greetings,

We extend warm Eid greetings to all celebrating in India, the Middle East, Pakistan, Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia. Today, these regions observe Eid and enjoy a holiday. As MDEX remains closed, we lack guidance from the Palm side. Nevertheless, our perspectives remain steadfast. Anticipated resistance near RM 4450 will temper excitement, directing prices toward RM 4000. Palm closed previously at RM 4320 +25, and amidst CBOT corrections, tepid news from China, and forthcoming labor resumption in Indonesia / Malaysia, prices are expected to stabilize. We advise readers to continue selling at current levels until testing the RM 4000 support. A break below suggests initiating long positions, particularly within RM 3750-3650. Traders are encouraged to consider buying as far forward as possible to utilise the inverse and optimize gains.

Though firm offers for Palm into India are lacking, indicative prices hover around USD 1050 for CPO and approximately USD 1030 for ROL. Locally, buyers are inclined to pay USD equivalent of 1000, reflecting a USD 30 PMT disparity.

CBOT soybean oil exhibited volatility but settled mostly unchanged, with basis showing negligible movement, maintaining India's flat price. Nearby India was indicated at USD 1000, while MJ could be acquired at USD 985. Soybean oil prices have yet to align with sunflower oil prices, rendering soy more attractive for consumption in India. Bean oil purchases within USD 950-970 for nearby delivery are recommended, with further corrections warranting long positions for forward months. Support levels are anticipated around USD 920, while resistance in CNF India prices is expected upon reaching the USD 1100 mark.

Amidst Palm's lack of direction, Fitch's China rating downgrade, and India's holiday, CBOT correction is anticipated, offering long position opportunities. CBOT is likely to find support around 44.50, with RSI hovering around the 50% mark, signaling a potential buying opportunity post-correction.

Black Sea Ukraine continues to increase sunflower oil exports, while Romania and Poland face subpar sunflower seed crops, relying heavily on Ukraine for sun oil demand. Consequently, sunflower oil is expected to command a premium over bean oil, with forward month quotes already indicating premiums over spot month prices. Insufficient global sunflower oil supply may lead to testing the USD 1000 mark for CNF India prices and resistance around 1070. With sunflower oil supply constraints looming, purchasing opportunities are suggested during dips, particularly within USD 900-930 for India.

  • ARG SBO
  • Apr -600/-650
  • May -620/-680
  • JJ -700/-780
  • OND ?/-720
  • BR SBO
  • May ?/-610
  • JJ -700/-800
  • AS -650/-780
  • OND ?/-750
  • Palm oil closed 
  • 6 ports Europe May 990 vs -
  • MJ 990 vs 970
  • JAS 1005 vs 980
  • OND 990 vs 975
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 890 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 890 vs 840
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 990 vs 960
  • Italy indicated for May/June at USD 980 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated  now  for May 970 vs 960 / June 980 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 910 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.35, RM 4.74, Rub 93.33 and Euro 1.0726



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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