ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1530 03042025 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY


Good Morning ,


MDEX experienced a remarkable start, surging to triple-digit gains and nearly testing the resistance level of RM 4450 during the day's session. By lunchtime, June settled at RM 4396 +84, and as of the latest update, it is trading at RM 4418 +106. The surge in Malaysian exports, coupled with firm crude oil prices at 89.19, is further fueling the already high prices. While bulls are expected to sustain the rally, close observation of the RM 4450 resistance level is warranted. A consecutive three-day closure above RM 4450 would prompt a reassessment of our view, but for now, we maintain that prices are conducive for making shorts.

In the Indian market, there's considerable talk about a potential rally in palm oil prices towards RM 5000. To support this sentiment, there have been reported trades in CPO at 1055 for ECI, and for ROL, trades were heard at USD 1027 and later at 1030 WCI India. Although margins have not been observed at current levels in Chennai, trades are occurring at INR 980 in Kandla as a replacement. Despite the ongoing rally in MDEX, we advise palm players not to succumb to panic, as it was panic selling that already drove palm prices to annual highs. Buyers are likely to offer significant support to palm on any downward movement, particularly if prices fall below RM 4250.

Bean oil also rallied last night, reaching triple-digit gains, but basis decreased, keeping the flat price approximately USD 10 higher. July settled at 49.15 +39. With funds still short on bean oil and a technically weak picture across the entire complex including Beans, Corn, and Wheat, the market scenario is uncertain. However, with firm palm oil prices and strong demand from India and China for vegetable oils, we anticipate CBOT bean oil testing the 52.50 mark, potentially leading to another robust market session today. Despite a brief drop in basis to -900, which later recovered to -700, buyers were observed at -790 for April at the close. CNF India reported some business of Argy cargo at 1010, and some Russian-origin bean oil traded at USD 990-995, though this information is unverified.

Locally, the availability of Degum is limited, aiding domestic crush. The current rally has intensified the crush in the Indian market, with refined soybean oil reaching the INR 1000 mark in the hinterland after a prolonged period. Bean oil remains relatively expensive locally compared to refined Sun at INR 965-970 and ROL, which traded at INR 975 today. While we anticipate CNF India soybean oil prices to reach around USD 1100, we expect volatile conditions before that materializes.

In the Black Sea region, sunflower oil trading to India occurred at USD 970, with current offers now at USD 980. Tensions have escalated due to Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy sectors, leading to swift crush operations and a significant reduction in Ukraine seed availability. India continues to import substantial volumes of sunflower oil, with expectations of continued imports in the coming months. Sunflower oil prices are projected to rally towards USD 1050, where resistance is anticipated. Therefore, we advise readers to consider long positions during dips. Egypt made purchases in yesterday's tender, and China has also been an active buyer. Meanwhile, Europe still favors costlier rape seed oil, with limited demand for sunflower oil at around USD 950 against best offers near USD 970. We reiterate that sunflower oil represents the best value for money and recommend making long positions, selling only upon cargo arrival at the destination.



- ARG SBO

Apr ?/-790

May -710/-840

JJ -760/-920

AS ?/-800

OND-640/-800


BR SBO

Apr -/-760

May -550/-800

JJ -720/-950

AS -/-880

  • 6 ports Europe SFO 6 ports, FOB
  • AMJ $970 vs -
  • JAS  $990 vs -
  • OND $980 vs -
  • Palm Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4401 (+89)
  • H 4443 / L 4292
  • Vol :  141,691
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Apr 1005 vs 
  • May 990 vs 
  • Jun 975 vs 
  • Jas 935 vs 927.5
  • Ond 910 vs 902.5
  • Jfm 910 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: May 987.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 830 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4600
  • Laurics: Apr 340 (pk) / 340 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1335
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1265
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1435
  • Sbo :  
  • May 4891 (+31)
  • Jul 4944 (+29)
  • Aug 4957 (+33)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8570 (+270)
  • Sep 8048 (+324)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 870 vs 820
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 860 vs 820
  • Spain indicated for April May at USD 970 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for April may at USD 965 vs —
  • CIF Lw India traded at USD 980 now indicative offers for May / June 970 vs —
  • Turkey indicative ideas Mersin USD 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.43, RM 4.75, Rub 92.45 and Euro 1.0774



Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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