Athena Market Buzz

1410 08032024 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ


Good morning,


MDEX witnessed a notable rally post POC , triggering upbeat sentiments among cash sellers who began offering higher prices or showed reluctance to engage in transactions. This response was largely anticipated and presents an opportune moment for exiting long positions. While it's acknowledged that palm production is currently low and there are anticipated increases in mandates, these factors have already been factored into current price levels.

With the RSI exceeding 68%, we are entering an overbought zone, suggesting the likelihood of a significant correction. Today, MDEX opened higher, with May trading at RM 4084 +13, compared to yesterday's RM 4063 +18 at the same time. Palm is expected to encounter substantial resistance at current levels, reinforcing the expectation of trading near RM 3750 soon as the new normal. Traders are strongly advised to book profits and consider exiting their long positions. If prices rally beyond RM 4250, short positions could be considered. The bottom seems well protected at RM 3450 for the next couple of months, with levels between RM 3550-3650 deemed suitable for initiating long positions.

CPO CNF India prices were indicated around USD 1000 for March, aligning closely with nearby soya prices but standing approximately 50 units higher than sunflower oil prices. ROL was indicated at USD 965, with buyers at USD 945, still carrying a premium compared to sunflower oil. Despite the mostly inactive Indian market due to holidays, palm remains active, with sellers asking for INR 92,000-92,500 and buyers at INR 91,500.

Bean oil experienced a remarkable rally last night, with the basis mostly unchanged and CBOT surging in triple digits. May settled up at +103 points, reaching 46.35, and July up at 101 points, reaching 46.74. The market is expected to rally towards 47.50 initially and eventually towards 52.50, where resistance is anticipated. Basis corrections are expected to limit gains, while flat price CNF India could reach USD 1050, potentially benefiting other oils, especially sunflower oil, in the summer months. With USDA reports due tonight, shorts have adjusted positions in anticipation of a bullish report. Prices are unlikely to trade much lower, but if they do fall between USD 850-900, it could present a buying opportunity.

Black Sea sunflower oil traders priced some parcels for India at USD 940 for March, with similar expectations for April. Currently, there are no offers for India, with indicative levels for April hovering around USD 940. Active trading in 6 European ports has seen sellers at USD 950 for AMJ and 970 for JAS, representing an increase of approximately USD 30 since Monday. Sunflower oil in JAS could surpass bean oil, underscoring the importance of holding positions. While levels below USD 900 are currently unlikely, if they occur, it's advisable not to hesitate in making long positions. CIF India sees support between USD 850-870, with resistance potentially emerging above the USD 1000 mark. Levels between USD 1000-1050 should be considered for short positions, while current offerings appear attractive for buyers, emphasizing the importance of capitalizing on dips and avoiding remaining short in sunflower oil.

  • ARG SBO
  • Mch -560/-640
  • Apr -570/-650
  • May -690/-700
  • MJJ -600/-710
  • BR SBO
  • Apr -450/-600
  • May ?/-680
  • JJ ?/-750
  • AS ?/-730
  • 6 ports Europe sfo seller amj 950 vs 930 and jas 970 vs —
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 4084 (+13)
  • H 4119 / L 4073
  • Vol :  40,497
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 930 vs 
  • Apr 930 vs
  • Amj 907.5 vs  897.5
  • Jas 850 vs 845
  • Ond 837.5 vs 827.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Apr 927.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 787.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4200 
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 276 (pk) / 276 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1065
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 1000
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1170
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4583 (unch)
  • May 4684 (+49)
  • Jul 4726 (+52)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7734 (+46)
  • Sep 7284 (+32)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 810 vs 780
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 950 vs 920
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 945 vs 890
  • CIF India lw Ukraine indications only no firm offers  March 950 vs — April/ May 940 vs 930 and June 955 vs
  • Turkey Mersin indicated USD 880 vs 845
  • Currency INR 82.69, RM 4.68, Rub 90.49 and Euro 1.094
  • Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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