Athena Market Buzz

1330 29032024 Athena Market Buzz Friday  


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ 



Good Day,

Happy Friday, and we extend our well wishes to our Indian counterparts as they close their financial year.

Today, all eyes are on the MDEX as the market remains busy. MDEX opened firm, and by midday, we observed a 0.6% uptick, with June settling at RM 4161 +25. As of the latest update, June is trading even higher at RM 4188 +52. We've reiterated that the market is encountering robust resistance levels between RM 4250 - 4450. Further consolidation is anticipated at these levels. Despite a weakened RSI, we anticipate MDEX prices to remain above RM 4000 until the end of April. However, starting April, India is expected to experience very hot weather, which will likely reduce the overall demand for fried products, consequently impacting prices. With reduced demand and higher palm costs, we anticipate a significant reduction in imports, further affecting prices. We expect Palm to retrace back to RM 3750 before becoming a viable buy option. CNF India offers for CPO already exceed USD 1020, while ROL is offered above USD 1000 for nearby contracts, exhibiting a substantial inverse. Last night, India increased tariffs, making the landed price of palm products more expensive, diminishing major demand prospects. Given the current premium over soft oils, volatile conditions, and the anticipated demand reduction, we advise against long positions at current levels. We reiterate that current prices warrant short positions, with a stop loss at MR 4350. Traders should await prices around RM 3750 to consider long positions again.

The USDA released mostly expected numbers, pegging soybean stocks at 1.845 billion, compared to the average estimate of 1.828 billion. Prospective planting for soybeans in 2024 is expected to align with predictions. Consequently, bean oil settled with July 48.48 +26 and Aug 48.54 +29. With a firming basis, the flat price on bean oil CNF India is slightly higher today, with nearby cargoes at USD 1028 and MJJ at 990. While CNF India bean oil is cheaper compared to palm, it remains pricier than sunflower oil. Lower trades in sunflower oil are noted, suggesting a potential shift in demand. Additionally, short funds are seeking an exit, and the FED is likely to return to interest rate cuts, potentially increasing the tightness in palm and driving soybean oil prices higher. On the top end, we anticipate degum to test USD 1100, while on the downside, MJJ months may trade below USD 900. Currently, we advise against longs for MJJ and recommend selling first, then buying. Weather conditions in destination countries like India, China, and the Middle East are expected to limit overall consumption, keeping prices in a narrow range until the end of May, with a potential rally thereafter. When bean oil trades around USD 900 in India, traders should consider making longs, even with local soybean carryovers and a large rape seed crop.

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine sunflower oil to India was indicated around USD 950 for nearby contracts, with forward months offered at USD 945. Reports indicate small volumes of sunflower oil traded for June at USD 945 to ECI, although rumors of USD 935 trades circulated. Sunflower oil, being the cheapest option, is expected to continue trading, and sellers are advised not to panic. In March, India imported close to 340,000 MT of sunflower oil, the second-highest import month, with April expected to reach around 350,000 MT, further cutting into the share of palm and soy. We advise readers not to panic and to continue making longs. New supports for sunflower oil are at USD 900-920, with resistance only expected at USD 1060. Europe is closed today, but indicative rape seed oil prices are around USD 1040 (on par with CPO prices CNF India), while Sunflower oil indications are around USD 945. Spain saw a few cargoes trade this week between USD 940 to 945 for nearby contracts, with sellers offering at USD 940 for forward months, with limited demand.

  • ARG SBO
  • Apr -520/-700
  • May -700/-760
  • JJ -750/-880
  • AS ?/-800
  • OND ?/-750
  • BR SBO
  • Apr -400/-600
  • May -550/-700
  • MJJ -650/-760
  • JJ -700/-800
  • AS -/-800
  • 6 ports Europe closed for long week end Indications SFO 6 ports, FOB ($)
  • May 950 vs 930
  • JAS 965 vs 955
  • OND 952.5 vs 940
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4161 (+25)
  • H 4184 / L 4151
  • Vol :  19,737
  •  
  • Oln  
  • May 947.5 vs 940
  • Jun 935 vs 
  • Jas 885 vs 877.5 
  • Ond 867.5 vs 860
  • Jfm 867.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Apr 960 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 800 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4350 
  • Laurics: Apr 330 (pk) / 330 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1295
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1235
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1395
  • Sbo :  closed
  • Dce :  
  • May 8160 (+48)
  • Sep 7618 (+114)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 830 vs 810
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 820 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 945 vs 930
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 940 vs 920
  • CIF India lw Ukraine indications only no firm offers  April  950 vs 930 , May 945 vs 930 and June 940 vs 930
  • Turkey Mersin indicated USD 860 vs 840 rumoured
  • Currency INR 83.31, RM 4.72, Rub 92.61 and Euro 1.0774
  • Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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