Athena Market Buzz

1330 18032024 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ 



Mr Putin wins landslide  re election in Russia .. .. .. .. 


MDEX opened steady, but by lunchtime, the market edged marginally higher, with May settling at RM 4292+5 and June at RM 4243+23. The current RSI stands at 77%, signaling an overbought zone. Although resistance is anticipated, the market continues to trade about 0.5% higher, with May at RM 4300+13 and June at RM 4245+25 at the time of writing. We reiterate to our readers that the current market presents an excellent opportunity for shorts, urging sellers not to hesitate. CNF India prices for ROL are indicated at USD 1020 to do 1010, while CPO was offered at USD 1050 to do 1045. Locally, aggressive buying is lacking, causing business to stall. Disparity is expected to return to the local market, hence we advise local buyers to hold off before confirming any forward trades, although spot needs can still be fulfilled. India's large rape seed crop (about 12 million +) has also dampened sentiments. With soft oils indicating lower prices compared to palm, and consumption reducing in destinations like India and China, we caution against being overly bullish on Palm. We anticipate prices to regress towards RM 4000, with opportunities for longs emerging once prices dip below RM 4000, expecting a range of RM 3750-3850.

CBOT bean oil settled higher on Friday, with May +103 at 49.57 and July+101 at 49.95, trading mostly unchanged at the time of writing. Increased bean crushing in the USA, as reported by NOPA, and reduced soybean production in Brazil by 5-6% compared to the previous season have bolstered sentiments. Bean oil futures are expected to surge towards 52.50 soon, encountering minor resistance at 50.00. Basis remains mostly unchanged from the previous session. Sellers for April-May are at -750, while buyers wait at -800 and -850 respectively. Flat price bean oil is indicated around USD 1020 for spot and April months, but local market sales are scarce. We anticipate the flat price of bean oil to peak at USD 1100 before a correction. We've advised players to cover oil between USD 850-900 for MJJ, suggesting long position holders to exit and consider shorting if the market rallies further. In the Indian market, refined oil prices have rallied to INR 960, encountering strong resistance. Although palm prices exceed refined bean oil, the cheaper sunflower oil continues to attract buyers. Sentiments in soft oils are influenced by the bean oil complex at CBOT, with upticks expected as funds maintain short positions.

Ukraine launched several drone attacks into Russia, disrupting electrical supplies and causing a fire in an oil refinery. The attacks target the Krasnodar region, significant for sunflower seeds. Meanwhile, Mr. Putin secured a landslide victory in the election, ensuring continued turmoil in the region. Black Sea sunflower oil prices remain stable, indicated at a discount to all other oils in India. Brokers circulate prices of USD 970 and 965 for May-June, but it's puzzling why sunflower oil is still quoted inversely. We anticipate some carry as most of the sunseed new crop is crushed at a rapid pace, potentially putting forward months at a premium. We strongly advise buyers in India, the Middle East, and China to capitalize on two factors: a) sunflower oil being cheaper than palm and soybean oil, and b) its availability or quotation at an inverse. With the current pace of exports and crush, we may run out of sunseeds or at least cheap offers by June, potentially leading to a premium on sunflower oil over bean oil. Additionally, we believe sunflower oil bear by could reach as high as USD 1050, urging traders to take advantage of current cheap offers.

  • ARG SBO
  • Apr -720/-800
  • May -750/-850
  • MJJ -790/-900
  • BR SBO
  • Apr -600/-720
  • May -650/?
  • JJ ?/-900
  • AS ?/-850
  • 6 ports Europe sfo amj 965 v 930 jas 985 v 955 ond 965 v 935
  • Palm oil  Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 4243 (+23)
  • H 4300 / L 4221
  • Vol :  38,227
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Apr 985 (pk) vs 
  • Mj 965 vs 
  • Jas 900 vs 896 
  • Ond 877.5 vs 870
  • Jfm 880 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Apr 960 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 815 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4370 
  • Laurics: Apr 305 (pk) / 305 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1180
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 1120
  • Rbdpks : Apr 1280
  • Sbo : 
  • May 4952 (+10)
  • Jul 5001 (+9)
  • Aug 4988 (+9)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8132 (-18)
  • Sep 7520 (-10)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 880 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 870 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 985 vs 960
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 980 vs 950
  • CIF India lw Ukraine indications only no firm offers  April  985 vs 970 , May 995 vs 950 and June 970 vs 945
  • Turkey Mersin indicated USD 910 vs 
  • Currency INR 82.86, RM 4.72, Rub 92.99 and Euro 1.084
  • Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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