Athena Market Buzz

1430 11032024 Athena Market Buzz Monday


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ


Good morning,


MDEX appears to be consolidating at its current levels, with Friday's low at 4073 higher than Thursday's low at RM 4044. Today, it hit a low of 4050. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 69%, indicating the possibility of the overbought zone. While this might instill hope in bulls, it suggests caution. More consolidation is anticipated, with prices likely to correct to RM 4000 initially and possibly lower thereafter.

CPO prices CNF India have traded around USD 995 and then USD 1000. In contrast, ROL prices have strengthened, indicated around USD 975, with buying interest around USD 960-965. We advise readers to consider taking profits on their long positions initially. If prices rally towards RM 4250 or higher, one could consider short positions. However, for re-entry into long positions, it's prudent to await cooler prices around RM 3750 or lower.

With Ramadan underway, increased demand from the Middle East, Pakistan, and India is expected. While Palm may strive for new highs, persistent lower lows could signal price corrections, prompting readers to exit long positions.

The USDA's report indicated lower Brazil soybean production by 1 million MT to 155 million, surpassing traders' expectations of 152.28 million MT, thereby pushing prices down. Bean oil, settling at 46.17 -18 on Friday May, is currently trading at 46.24 +9, with a mostly unchanged basis. Beans have rebounded from 3-year lows, with bean oil finding support above 42.50 likely to move towards 47.50 before encountering resistance at 52.50. On a flat price basis CNF India, soybean oil offers for April stand at USD 985, while May-June offers hover around USD 970, higher than sunflower oil, prompting WCI India to lean towards buying CSFO, potentially reducing demand for bean oil and leading to temporary price corrections.

Soybean oil prices should find support between USD 870-900, with the potential to rally towards USD 1100, becoming overpriced for short positions. From the current USD 975 levels, a correction down USD 5-10 is expected before regaining momentum towards 1020, which could pull sunflower oil prices higher.

The Black Sea region remains largely stagnant due to ongoing conflicts, posing logistical challenges. Crush operations are ongoing, albeit with delays in exporting produce. FOB prices in Ukraine/Russia stand at around USD 840, rising to USD 880 CIF to Turkey, and indicating around USD 960 to Europe, though buyers are negotiating 20-30 lower. Sunflower oil remains the most economical option, discouraging short positions. While palm correction may cause price corrections, summer months could see sunflower oil trade around USD 1000, with strong support anticipated at USD 900, prompting Europe and India to consider procurement.

  • ARG SBO
  • Mch -500/-600
  • Apr -510/-600
  • May -600/-700
  • MJJ -580/-730
  • BR SBO
  • Mch -450/-550
  • Apr ?/-540
  • May -500/?
  • JJ -550/-730
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  $950 vs $925
  • JAS   $970 vs $940
  • OND $945 vs $920
  • Palm oil Bmd : May 4106 (+13)
  • H 4108 / L 4074
  • Vol :  18,758
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 932.5 vs 
  • Apr 932.5 vs
  • Amj 915 vs 
  • Jas 855 vs 850/52.5
  • Ond 840 vs 832.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Apr 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 790 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4200 
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 278 (pk) / 279 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1075
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 1010
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1180
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4560 (unch)
  • May 4623 (+6)
  • Jul 4674 (+9)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7774 (+24)
  • Sep 7266 (-24)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 840 vs 820
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 840 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 960 vs 920
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 955 vs 920
  • CIF India lw Ukraine indications only no firm offers  April  955 vs 940 , May 950 vs 930 and June 955 vs
  • Turkey Mersin indicated USD 880 vs 845
  • Currency INR 82.74, RM 4.67, Rub 90.83 and Euro 1.0941
  • Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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