Athena Market Buzz

1540 04032024 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ


Good morning,

MDEX exhibited minimal changes upon opening and maintained this status, as participants were predominantly occupied with conference meetings. Discussions among market players revolved around the reduced utilization of palm oil by major destinations like India and the Middle East, potentially impacting the export programs of Malaysia and Indonesia. During the lunch break, Palm settled with thin volume for May at RM 3958 -8 and June at RM 3884-12. However, as of the current report, May is trading at RM 3940 -26, and June at RM 3868 -28.

Despite the bullish stance on palm origins, it seems they have surpassed reasonable pricing, signaling an anticipated correction post POC. Many speakers express optimism about prices due to low production, but concerns arise from the substantial reduction in consumption, particularly in countries like India and the Middle East. The summer months may witness a slight improvement in palm output, but it will only be viable if significantly lower than soft oil.

CNF India reported offers for ROL at USD 930 to USD 925, while local transactions in India showed minimal disparities, with buyers paying INR 88,500/- at some ports. The recommendation to readers is to avoid making long positions at current levels and consider exiting existing long cargoes. If MDEX surpasses RM 4250, making shorts is advised, and for longs, one should await prices to correct below RM 3750.

In the CBOT bean oil market, Friday's settlement remained mostly unchanged, with May at 45.32 -5 and July at 45.32-5. As of the report, trading continues without significant fluctuations, while basis shows improvement, pushing flat prices slightly higher. March indications were -600, and April -620, with buyers lagging by about 100 points. CNF India presents supportive offers for bean oil, with March indications at USD 94, April at 942.50, and May around USD 930 to USD 925.

Despite an oversupply of bean oil, it competes favorably with Sunflower oil and CPO prices, possibly leading to increased demand. Ramadan demand has been addressed, and the overall market may remain range-bound, with China expected to contribute to buying. Bean oil prices below USD 900 for MJJ (May, June, July) could become an interesting buy, as later in the year, they hold potential to rally around USD 1100 CNF India.

In the local Indian market, Degum soybean oil sellers indicate INR 850 for March delivery, and April shipment is offered at INR 785+duty, with limited buying interest. Refined oil trades around INR 93,000/- as ROL traded in ECI at INR 88,500/-.

Sunflower oil sellers for India propose USD 930 for March and USD 920 for April shipment, while buyers suggest USD 910 and 900, respectively. Recent trades for May at USD 910 saw the absence of those buyers today. The attractiveness of Sunflower oil prices in comparison to Palm oil, coupled with MDEX fluctuations, keeps buyers on the sidelines. Europe Sunflower oil indications hover around USD 920 for the near term, but buyers aim below USD 900.

Today’s report emphasizes that Sunflower oil has strong support only around USD 850, and consideration for entry and scaling up buying should happen if prices correct below USD 900 CIF India. Despite not being bearish on Sunflower oil, the expectation is for prices to eventually rally back towards USD 1050 in the summer months, driven by the exhaustion of current seed supply and heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Dips in Sunflower oil prices are recommended to be owned, considering potential logistical issues.

  • ARG SBO
  • Mch -600k/-700k
  • Apr -620/-750
  • MJJ -740/-810
  • BR SBO
  • Mch -500/-700
  • Apr -600/-800
  • May ?/-870
  • MJJ ?/-850
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  915 vs 895
  • JAS 940 vs 920 
  • OND 925 vs 895
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 3940 (-26)
  • H 3985 / L 3927
  • Vol :  31,342
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 890 vs 
  • Apr 887.5 vs
  • Amj 870 vs  
  • Jas 830 vs 
  • Ond 820 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Apr 885 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 760 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4050
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 269 (pk) / 269 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1035
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 970
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1140
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4462 (unch)
  • May 4512 (-4)
  • Jul 4549 (-7)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7522 (+2)
  • Sep 7044 (+6)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 760 vs 740
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 750 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 920 vs 910
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 915 vs 890
  • CIF India lw March 930 vs — April/ May 925 vs 895 and June 915 vs
  • Turkey Mersin indicated USD 845 vs 825
  • Currency INR 82.84, RM 4.74, Rub 91.27and Euro 1.0814
  • Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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