Athena Market Buzz

1500 09022024 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Good morning and a very Happy Friday 


MDEX exhibited firmness in its opening, influenced by the overnight strength of bean oil. At lunchtime, Palm settled with April up by +49 points at RM 3923, which, as of the writing of this report, is trading at +26 points at RM 3900. With China on holiday for the next week, major activity from their end is not anticipated, which may keep the palm market subdued and reliant on rival oils for direction. It's worth noting that current levels are likely to prompt most Indian players to exit long positions, contributing to resistance above RM 3950 and potentially leading to consolidation.

In CNF India, palm prices are predominantly trading around USD 900, with today's offers hovering around USD 905, accompanied by limited buying interest. Resellers are notably active in the current market environment, possibly leading to an increase in disparity. For instance, price ideas for ROL Chennai stand at INR 855 against a landed cost of INR 875. India is likely to re-enter the market only amidst expectations of a rally.

Yesterday, MDEX presented a classic DOJI candlestick, reflecting market indecision, particularly if a settlement occurs around RM 3871, leaving the market directionless. However, there's confidence that once Chinese activity resumes and if the market remains within the RM 3850-3950 range, a rally over RM 4000 may be witnessed, with shorts possibly initiated around RM 4250-4450.

Regarding USDA hints of mildly bullish markets, CBOT bean oil funds have initiated buying back their shorts, resulting in a triple-digit rally. An anticipated pause in the free fall since last August is expected, possibly leading to price movements over 50.00. Resistance levels in CBOT are expected to shift from 54.50 to 52.50, with bottom supports possibly transitioning from 47.50 to new lows of 42.50. Basis has dropped, yet flat prices remain supportive.

CNF India offers for bean oil have risen to USD 930 for most nearby positions until April 2024, with sunflower oil prices following suit. Traders are advised to exercise caution and consider making long positions for MJJ if prices approach 850. While current prices may prompt exiting long positions, it's advisable to refrain from going short. Shorts should be considered only if prices surpass USD 1000, while owning dips remains the strategy for now.

In the local Indian market, solvent oil is trading at INR 845/50, with soybean seed plant delivery around 46500/-.

Black Sea Ukraine sunflower oil prices are stable, with destinations like Spain/India offering prices around USD 920-930. Russians, benefiting from cheaper freight to India, are maintaining low margins, while Ukrainians are primarily focusing on selling small vessels to Spain/Italy. In 6 ports across Europe, trading ranges between USD 930-925, with expectations of Egypt conducting another tender on sunflower oil. With sunflower oil prices aligning with soybean oil, interest from Indian buyers is anticipated. Prices below USD 900 remain attractive for long positions, particularly for destinations like India, the Middle East, and China. Traders are encouraged to remain cautious and continue making long positions when prices trade between USD 850-880 CIFLW, regardless of macroeconomic trends.

  • SOYOIL Basis/Fob:
  • ARGENTINA-
  • FM-950/-1050(Fob Slr 847.45$/Byr 833.78)+15$
  • Apr-1000/-1100(844.80/822.76)+3
  • May-1050/-1130(833.78/816.14)+11
  • JJ-1050/-1130(835.98/818.35)+11
  • BRAZIL-
  • Mar-820/-1000(876.11/836.43)+35
  • Apr-940/-1100(858.03/822.76)+17
  • May-990/-1200(847/800)+11
  • JJ-1000/-1210
  • 6 ports Europe Mch 925 vs 905
  • AMJ 920 vs 905
  • JAS  930 vs 910
  • OND 930 vs 905
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3923 (+49)
  • H 3945 / L 3871
  • Vol :  24,991
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 875 vs
  • Mar 875 vs 
  • Amj 845 vs 837.5 
  • Jas 817.5 vs  
  • Ond 815 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 870 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 737.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3980
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 262 (pk) / 264 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 995
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 935
  • Rbdpks : Feb 1105
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4796 (+2)
  • May 4834 (+2)
  • Jul 4845 (+3)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 830 vs 810
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 825 vs —
  • Spain indicated for FM around USD 925 vs 900
  • Italy indicated for FM around USD 920 vs —
  • Turkish ports are indicated around USD 865 vs —
  • CIF Lw India for pricing near by around USD 930 vs900 and Forward may be USD 935 for Russian origin
  • Currency INR 83.00, RM 4.76, Euro 1.0764, and Rub 90.86


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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