Athena Market Buzz

1330 07022024 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good morning,


MDEX demonstrated impressive performance today, opening slightly higher and experiencing a marginal dip by lunchtime, with April trading at RM 3838-5. However, aggressive buying later in the day led to a significant rally, pushing Palm to trade at RM 3886+43 for April, approaching the RM 3900 threshold. Traders with long positions in PALM are advised to consider selling if the market closes above RM 3900 today. Prices between RM 3950-4000 are recommended for exiting long positions, while shorts should be considered if prices exceed RM 4250. The tight PALM supply and demand dynamics, attributed to lower production and higher exports, are expected to keep the market bottom protected around RM 3450 levels. Traders can initiate long positions between RM 3450-3550. CNF India offers for Olein hover around USD 890, with some buyers willing to pay smaller volumes at USD 880. In rupees, Olein traded at INR 840 yesterday and is currently offered at INR 84,200/-, maintaining a significant disparity of $15-$20 from international prices. Economic challenges in China and ongoing mediation for the Red Sea conflict are expected to limit crude oil price rallies, keeping the edible oil market balanced yet volatile, with RM 4450 acting as a temporary ceiling.

CBOT soybeans experienced mostly higher trading yesterday, with bean oil performing particularly well. Last night, the March contract settled at +61, reaching 45.94, and May settled at +62, reaching 46.40. At the time of writing, these figures are slightly lower. Basis pressure remained evident yesterday, keeping nearby oil prices relatively stable. Aggressive offers for March and April bean oil are observed, with F.O.B. prices around $810. CNF India offers for March and April bean oil hover around 890, with expectations to procure around 880. Locally in India, soybean seed prices are range-bound, placing pressure on stockists due to trading below MSP. Traders should view current prices as opportunities to hold, potentially signaling the bottom for soybean seed prices in India. Import duty discussions for soft oils may commence post-elections in India. Traders are advised to consider long positions when prices range between USD 850 to 880 and exit when prices touch USD 1000 CNF India. Bullish sentiments center on Argentina's weather patterns, anticipating a hot and dry climate to support already lower prices. With China likely on holiday next week, major directional shifts are not expected. Traders are urged not to panic and capitalize on lower prices to accumulate long positions.

Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, with most shipments for February and March either fully committed or sold. Indian buyers are eager to secure nearby oil, paying USD 910 for March shipments. Russian cargo for April shipment is indicated at USD 900, with buyers aiming for USD 880. Logistics remain a concern, with no signs of aggressive selling in sunflower oil. Indian and Middle Eastern buyers are advised to secure sufficient long positions in nearby oils, considering long positions even for AMJ below USD 900. As Europe's crush season concludes, consumption of sunflower oil is expected to rise, with Ukraine maintaining seeds domestically for crushing, supporting demand for sunflower oil. Europe is offered USD 910 for March, with buyers waiting for bean oil recovery to express interest.

  • ARGENTINA-
  • FM-900/-980(Fob Slr 814.38$/Byr 806.88)-2$
  • Apr-950/-1010(813.50/800.27)-8
  • May-980/-1030(806.88/795.86)+4
  • JJ-980/-1030
  • BRAZIL-
  • Feb-650/-1000(879.64/792.33)+53
  • Mar-700/-930(858.47/807.77)+42
  • Apr-900/-1030(824.52/795.86)+3
  • May-900/-1070(824.52/787.04)+9
  • 6 ports Europe Feb  930 vs 900
  • Mar  930 vs 900
  • AMJ 927.5 vs 890
  • JAS  935 vs 905
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3838 (-5)
  • H 3870 / L 3815
  • Vol :  28,650
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 857.5 vs
  • Mar 857.5 vs 
  • Amj 830 vs 825 
  • Jas 807.5 vs 802.5 
  • Ond 805 vs 795
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 850 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 725 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3920
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 256 (pk) / 257 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 970
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 910
  • Rbdpks : Feb 1080
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4574 (-20)
  • May 4621 (-19)
  • Jul 4633 (-22)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7078 (-22)
  • Sep 6702 (-24)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 830 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 820 vs —
  • Spain indicated for FM around USD 920 vs 900
  • Italy indicated for FM around USD 915 vs —
  • Turkish ports are indicated around USD 860 vs —
  • CIF Lw India for pricing near by around USD 920 vs — and Forward may be USD 910 for Russian origin
  • Currency INR 83.04, RM 4.75, Euro 1.0754, and Rub 91.13


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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