Athena Market Buzz

 1400 06022024 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 

MDEX experienced a recovery yesterday following recent lows, and today, the market is on an upward trend once again. During the midday session, April traded at RM 3825, up by 23 points, maintaining its position. However, there seems to be some resistance for the palm markets to surpass the RM 3850 mark. Despite bearish sentiments in other oil markets, the palm market appears to be resilient. Traders are advised against shorting at current levels and are encouraged to consider buying during dips.

Stocks in Malaysia are currently experiencing a decline, reaching their lowest point in nine months, while exports remain relatively stable. Palm production is stagnant, and there hasn't been a significant increase in palm imports from India. It seems that demand and supply are balanced, and the stock drawdown is anticipated to stabilize in February. We maintain the view of selling long positions if we breach RM 3850 to RM 3950, while waiting for opportunities to re-enter long positions. Prices ranging between RM 3450-3550 are deemed attractive for long positions, with cautious trading advised until then. While it appears challenging for palm to surpass RM 4250, traders should be prepared to short if it does.

In India, offers for  ROL are around USD 880, with indications that it could trade at USD 870. Economic issues in China have limited major trading activities. In terms of the rupee, India is trading at INR 83,000/-, indicating a disparity of USD 30 per metric ton. Sufficient oil is available in the local market to meet February demand.

Bean oil experienced a slight recovery ahead of the key USDA report released on Thursday. March settled at 45.33 +60, and May at 45.78 +56, marking a 1% increase at the time of writing. Technical oversold positions suggest a potential rise above 47.50, but momentum could wane due to impressive US job data, postponing interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. Despite hopes of bullish reports from USDA, it seems unlikely until at least June 2024. Traders should anticipate slightly lower prices before June, possibly testing 42.50, with a subsequent jump in basis prices. Prices for bean oil are expected to remain above USD 775 FOB or CNF India USD 850. Traders are advised to consider making long positions between 850-900 for MJJ and to cover most of their needs closer to USD 850 levels.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated, with Ukraine reportedly targeting drones inside Russia. This ongoing conflict suggests a prolonged peace process. The tension between Houthis and the war in Ukraine will likely keep global markets on edge. Sunflower oil supplies may remain uncertain, and readers are cautioned against shorting sunflower oil. MJJ maintains a premium over bean oil, expected to be around USD 20-30 PMT. While sunflower oil typically held a premium over bean oil, recent aggression from Ukraine and Russia has resulted in a discount. However, as the situation unfolds, this dynamic may shift, and traders are advised not to hesitate in making long positions in sunflower oil between USD 850-900. With ample soybean oil supplies and improved availability of rapeseeds, the top price for sunflower oil is expected to remain capped at USD 1100 for the year, with short positions advisable if it crosses the USD 1000 mark on FOB.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -850/-950
  • Mar 24 -850/-950
  • Apr 24 -900/-1020
  • MJJ 24 -950/-105
  • AS 24  ??/-950
  • OND ??/-880
  • Brazil SBO
  • Feb 24 ?? /-1000
  • Mar 24 ? /-1000
  • Apr 24 -850/?
  • May -880/ ?
  • MJJ 24 ? / -1050
  • 6 ports Europe yesterdays close feb and march seller 910 amj 897.5 v 890 jas 907.5 v 900 ond 905 v 895
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3825 (+23)
  • H 3846 / L 3782
  • Vol :  27,483
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 855 vs
  • Mar 855 vs 
  • Amj 830 vs 825 
  • Jas 807.5 vs 800 
  • Ond 805 vs 792.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 850 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 725 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3900
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 254 (pk) / 255 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 970
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 910
  • Rbdpks : Feb 1080
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4557 (+24)
  • May 4601 (+23)
  • Jul 4620 (+24)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7092 (+48)
  • Sep 6724 (+40)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 820 vs 790
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 810 vs —
  • Spain indicated for FM around USD 915 vs 880
  • Italy indicated for FM around USD 905 vs —
  • Turkish ports are indicated around USD 850 vs —
  • CIF Lw India for pricing near by around USD 915 vs — and Forward may be USD 910 for Russian origin
  • Currency INR 83.04, RM 4.75, Euro 1.0754, and Rub 91.13


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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