Athena Market Buzz

1530 26022024 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ


Good morning,

The markets experienced considerable volatility today, particularly in Palm oil. The day commenced with a positive opening, but by lunchtime, May settled at RM 3845 - 8, only to recover later. As of the time of writing this report, the active month May settled at RM 3868 + 15, slightly lower than the day's high. Palm fundamentals remain strong, and most participants in the POC conference are expected to adopt a bullish stance, which should provide support to prices pre-POC. We anticipate a consolidation during the conference, potentially bringing MDEX back to RM 3750 levels.

China is maintaining its purchases and is awaiting further stimulus for its economy until the Fed cuts interest rates. They prefer to see a weaker USD before weakening the Yuan. India, on the other hand, demonstrates robust demand but operates within a disparity market. Local markets are trading with negative margins as longs have incurred losses. We reiterate that if MDEX falls below RM 3750, as expected after the POC conference, it would present an excellent opportunity to go long, while levels of RM 3850-3950 would be suitable for exiting long positions. In the event of Palm rallying towards RM 4250 due to soft oil and potential Fed interest rate reductions, one should be prepared to short between RM 4250-4450, with strong support at RM 3750 for summer months in India.

Today, CPO buyers were willing to pay USD 922.50, but sellers were only showing offers at USD 935. For ROL, sellers indicated USD 900 to do 895, while buyers requested USD 890 without success.

Soybeans remained mixed today as they tested multi-year lows, with oil also testing lows around 44.50 for most positions. Favorable weather and harvest pace in Brazil are pushing USA prices lower. Bean oil faces demand issues, and with active selling by funds, a CBOT rally seems unlikely. Prices around 52.50 will encounter sellers who will short the market again, but a bounce back from current levels is expected. Basis has improved and is indicated around -650 for the spot month, with further improvement anticipated as CBOT corrects. Despite strong supplies, basis is not expected to enter the positive zone, so traders will refrain from buying basis for now but may consider covering some CBOT. Shorts will also need to exit, providing support to CBOT at lower levels. Funds short on commodities like CORN and Soybean will need to return before the Fed's prolonged actions. Bean oil offered to India was around USD 910 for most positions, with local markets slightly better due to sudden shortages in spot inventories. For MJJ, prices between USD 850-900 are favorable for making longs for destinations like India, while prices over USD 1060 will be used to make shorts.

The sunflower oil market has endured two years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Market participants have either accepted this reality or are seeking alternative drivers for the current market. FOB Black Sea markets are mostly stable around USD 740-750, with destinations still quoted around USD 900, especially India for April/May. Turkey is trading Izmir around USD 815, and Constanza shows FOB sunflower oil prices around USD 820. Russian sunflower oil to India traded a few times last week, and we anticipate March positions to India will be sold below USD 900 soon. Regarding sunflower oil, we remain cautious for forward months until we reach levels of USD 850-880 CIF India, where ownership for cargo to be sold in a rally is feasible. The top side of CNF India could remain limited to USD 1000 for this season.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Mch -650/-690
  • Apr -720/-840
  • MJJ -800/-850
  • Brazil SBO
  • Mch -/-750
  • Apr -/-750
  • MJJ -/-890
  • 6 ports Europe after trading 900 for OND is offered March 920 vs 905,  
  • April 920 vs 900
  • AMJ 920 vs 900
  • JAS 935vs 915 
  • OND 910 vs 900
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 3868 (+15)
  • H 3872/ L 3830
  • Vol :  47,949
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 877.5 vs 
  • Amj 847.5 vs 842.5 
  • Jas 812.5 vs 807.5
  • Ond 802.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Mar 875 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 747.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4020
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 261 (pk) / 262 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1005
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 940
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1110
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4392 (-10)
  • May 4445 (-15)
  • Jul 4487 (-13)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7274 (-8)
  • Sep 6814 (-20)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications 760 vs 740
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 750 vs —
  • Spain indicated for April at USD 910 vs 880
  • Italy indicates for April at USD 900 vs 880
  • CIF India lw March 910 vs 890, April/ May 900 vs 885 and June 900 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Martin USD 845 vs 830
  • Currency INR 82.82, RM 4.77, Rub 92.21 and Euro 1.0845

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)




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