Athena Market BUzz

1300 23022024 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


ATHENA MARKET BUZZ


Good morning ,


MDEX started the day on a positive note, but as lunchtime approached, selling pressure emerged, leading to a mild correction that pushed the active May contract to RM 3822 - 17. As of the current report, it is trading at RM 3831 - 8. Among the edible oil complex, Palm stands out as the most stable, but with reduced spreads between Bean oil and Palm, the market is experiencing increased selling pressure. Sentiments are bearish, especially with the proximity of Palm to other oils, prompting us to advise readers to exit long positions while they still have the opportunity.

As previously stated, traders are encouraged to make longs between RM 3550-3450, exit longs between RM 3850-3950, and consider going short in the palm market around RM 4250 or higher. Bulls seem fatigued, and the market has remained within a narrow range for the past three months. Despite the potential for bullish talks in Malaysia, caution is advised, and opportunities to go short should not be overlooked if prices rally. The RSI currently stands at 43%, indicating a lower pullback from current levels. Traders and market participants may desire a higher number for the price outlook session in Malaysia, but a wise approach is crucial, avoiding buying palm above RM 3750.

CNF India offers for CPO are around USD 930, surpassing soya and sunflower oil prices. ROL is trading in India within the range of USD 900 to 890, while the local Indian market is selling oils at INR 85,000/-, resulting in a consistent disparity of USD 25 PMT for the past three months.

CBOT bean oil futures are at their lowest in the past couple of years, still hovering over 44.50 for the active month of May, which settled last night at 44.80 - 62. Cash market prices are now very close to palm oil, in fact, at a discount to Palm oil. FUNDS are acknowledged for pushing prices so low, with basis strengthening with every drop in futures. March and April are already around our target, with March offers at -650 and April at -710, likely to find resistance to go below -500. It is emphasized that flat price bean oil finds significant support at USD 850 CNF India, currently indicated at USD 910 for April May. Traders are advised to start building longs CNF India with prices correcting lower towards USD 850 or if bean oil is offered significantly lower than CPO. FUNDS can now start buying soybean oil futures and cross hedge themselves in MDEX. CBOT should find support between 42.50-44.50 and resistance to surpass 52.50. FOB sellers are at USD 830, with buyers only willing to pay at USD 810, and it is anticipated that FOB prices will trade below 800, making it a potential buy.

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine is crushing about 1.3 million MT of sun seeds every month, producing approximately 575-600k of sunflower oil. Despite the two-year war that shows no signs of ending, most of the world, especially the West, has come to terms with it. Ukraine is approaching elections, which will either maintain the status quo under Mr. Zelensky or bring in someone new to end the conflict. Houthis continue to target ships in the Red Sea, but with buffer stocks available, no logistic issues are foreseen. FOB Black Sea sunflower oil prices are indicated between USD 770-780, and Europe spot parcels are trading below the USD 900 mark. Offers to Spain today are around USD 900, with buyers seeking cargo at USD 880. Turkey witnessed no major trades last week, but buyers are looking for cheaper offers around USD 835-840. CIF India pricing is being done at USD 910, with Russian sellers asking for USD 900 for April-May. For forward months, India can trade lower, and buyers are encouraged to wait for corrections. If pricing cargo for their brand, one can consider entering between USD 860-870 levels.


Argentina SBO

  • Mch -650/-730

Apr -710/-900

MJJ -800/-940

AS ?/-950

OND ?/-900


Brazil SBO

Feb ?/-700

Mch ?/-600

Apr -700/-850

MJJ ?/-950

  • 6 ports Europe AMJ 920 vs 910
  • JAS 932.5 vs 925
  • OND 920 vs 907.5
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 3822 (-17)
  • H 3853/ L 3811
  • Vol :  23,054
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 870 vs 
  • Amj 837.5 vs 832.5 
  • Jas 807.5 vs 802.5
  • Ond 797.5 vs 787.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Mar 870 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 745 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4000
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 261 (pk) / 262 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1005
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 940
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1110
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4438 (+17)
  • May 4494 (+14)
  • Jul 4534 (+12)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7268 (-90)
  • Sep 6828 (-52)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indicative USD 770 vs 750
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indicative USD 760 vs —
  • Spain indicated for near by at USD 900 vs 880
  • Italy indicated for near by at usd 895 vs—
  • CIF LW India for FM at USD 910 and for April,  May indications are at USD 900 vs —
  • Turkey indicative offers 840 vs—
  • Currency INR 82.88, RM 4.78, Rub 92.98, Euro 1.0828

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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