Athena Market Buzz

1540 15022024 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good morning ,


MDEX commenced trading on a lower note, primarily influenced by pressure from soybean oil, and remained predominantly down throughout the day. By midday, the May month was trading at RM 3874-27, which, as of the time of writing, stands at RM 3847-54. PALM emerges as the victor in this scenario, maintaining a stable environment with relatively subdued bearish sentiments.

As previously indicated, prices ranging between 3850-3950 will be utilized to exit long positions, while the range of RM 3450–3550 presents opportunities for long positions. Sentiments surrounding PALM remain highly supportive due to lower stocks, increased exports, and robust demand from countries like China and India. Middle Eastern nations are also contributing to PALM consumption, aiming to replenish inventories before the major holiday season.

However, with the U.S. inflation data not favoring oil futures, coupled with soybean's downward drag, PALM prices may experience further declines. Interestingly, sunflower oil CNF India is available at a lower cost than CPO, placing PALM in a challenging position. East Coast India, traditionally a PALM market, is increasingly opting for sunflower oil, potentially leading to a rise in PALM inventory at the origin.

This dynamic is expected to limit any rally, prompting our recommendation for readers to consider shorts in PALM once prices touch RM 4250 or higher. Currently, our suggestion is to exit long positions and only consider PALM purchases if prices approach 850–870 for RBDPoln. Locally in India, the disparity persists, with sellers willing to accept a negative margin of $20, quoting prices at INR 84500.

CBOT soybean seed Futures hit three-year lows yesterday and continue to trade at 11.73 for May month at the time of writing. Bean oil is also experiencing a decline, with yesterday's closing nearly -95 for March at 46.40 and -86 for May at 46.93. Today's conditions remain unchanged, with May trading 1% down at 46.47-47. Basis positions remain largely unchanged, with April, May, and June offers at -1000, exerting downward pressure on flat prices.

CNF India offers for Degum Soy Oil for April and May hover around USD 890, which is closer to RBD Olien prices and preferred, at least in West Coast India. As previously mentioned, soybean oil prices are anticipated to trend lower, particularly for MJJ, with a buy target set at USD 850 CF India. Despite pressure, our top remains at 52.50, with support maintained at 44.50.

In India, soy seed prices are trading below MSP, leaving minimal margin in crush. This year is expected to be challenging for stockists, and maintaining long positions in soybeans in India is discouraged unless available at significantly lower prices than the support price.

The Black Sea sunflower oil market has remained stable for the last four months, with trading ranges squeezed between USD 870 lows and USD 960 highs. FOB prices typically trade between USD 820-830, but CNF indications to destinations remain above USD 900. Despite USD 920 offers in CNF Spain, spot parcels may be secured even at USD 900. India's indications for sunflower oil hover around USD 910 for nearby deliveries, while April options are available at USD 900 or lower.

Sentiments in sunflower oil are more positive than soybean, with expectations for sunflower to maintain a premium over bean oil. Prices between USD 850-870 once again become attractive, remaining approximately USD 20 premium to sun, but at par with most ROL offers to India.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Mch -870/-970
  • Apr -970/-1070
  • MJJ -990/-1080
  • Brazil SBO
  • Mch -820/-1000
  • Apr -900/-1090
  • MJJ -920/-1120
  • 6 ports Europe Feb 930 vs 900
  • Mar 930 vs 900
  • AMJ 930 vs 900
  • JAS 940 vs 910
  • OND 930 vs 900
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 3823 (-78)
  • H 3915 / L 3817
  • Vol :  66,210
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Mar 870 vs 
  • Amj 835 vs 830 
  • Jas 807.5 vs 
  • Ond 802.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Mar 870 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 737.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3980
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Mar 260 (pk) / 262 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1000
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 935
  • Rbdpks : Mar 1105
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4581 (-54)
  • May 4638 (-55)
  • Jul 4669 (-57)
  • Dce :  Closed
  • Rm 4.778
  • Crude : 76.3
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indicative USD 830 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indicative USD 820 vs —
  • Spain indicated for near by at USD 920 vs —
  • Italy indicated for near by at usd 915 vs—
  • CIF LW India for FM at USD 910 and for April may indications are at USD 900 vs —
  • Turkey indicative offers 850 vs—
  • Currency INR 82.99, RM 4.77, Rub 91.41, Euro 1.0778

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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