Athena Market Buzz

1500 13022024 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday  



Good morning,


MDEX commenced the trading session with a slight downturn, later rebounding following the release of MPOB data. Palm oil exports have shown remarkable performance, leading to a decrease in stocks by approximately 2 million metric tons. Despite the low opening, by midday, the April contract was trading at RM 3864-20, and as of the time of writing, it has risen to RM 3894+10.

From a technical standpoint, PALM hit its lows on January 3rd at RM 3604 for the active month and reached a high on January 26th at RM 4036, spanning a range of 400 points. This volatility has provided ample opportunities for traders. PALM remains robust, with slight corrections anticipated upon encountering resistance levels of RM 3900- RM 4000. Corrections within the range of RM 3650–3550 should be capitalized upon, with support expected to hold steady at RM 3450. Rallies surpassing RM 4250 will prompt short positions in the market, encouraging traders to tactfully navigate the range.

The Price Outlook Conference is anticipated to bring forth positive sentiments on PALM, with bearish discussions unlikely. CNF India ROL prices are offered at USD 900 to 895, while CPO morning trades settled at 920, later offered at 930, with buyers showing interest around 925. Locally in India, ROL still exhibits a disparity, trading at INR 845 to INR 850, suggesting a negative margin of $15-$20. Readers are encouraged to procure local oil, particularly if dollar prices fall within the range of USD 850-870.

CBOT Bean oil displays positive trading activity today, rebounding from a slight correction observed yesterday, with May settling at 47.54-35 and July at 47.77-27. Today, it exhibits strength, marking a 1.26% increase. The short positions held by funds in bean oil heighten the risk of further selling, although support levels are expected. The USDA's crop data revealed a smaller-than-expected reduction in the Brazilian harvest and raised its global supply projection, setting the stage for additional fund selling. Support for bean oil stands at 44.50, while resistance has shifted to 52.5.

CNF India Bean Oil offers were around USD 915 for positions till April, with sunflower oil priced similarly. Beans in India continue to trade around MSP, prompting India to raise agricultural commodity prices before elections to avert disruptions. Buyers are advised to maintain a buying stance for bean oil during dips. CNF India prices below 900 remain attractive for ownership till March 2024, with MJJ prices sought closer to USD 850.

Sunflower oil remains notably stable amidst drone attacks between Russia and Ukraine, leading to logistical confusion. Premiums are added to already escalated freight rates due to recent attacks. CNF Mersin offers for sunflower oil hover around 855, while Spain is offered around $900. The Middle East is presented with offers of Sunflower oil from Ukraine origin around 930, while India is offered around 915 to 920 for pricing. Considering the escalating tensions and entering warmer months, sunflower oil is expected to command a premium over soybean oil. Six ports maintain flat prices at USD 925 until June, while buyers remain steadfast at $900.

  • MPOBMalaysia Jan PalmOil-
  • Prdn 14.02 LT, down 9.59% vs Dec
  • Export 13.50 LT, down 0.85%
  • Stock 20.19 LT, down 11.83%
  • 6 ports Europe Feb  $930 vs $900
  • Mar  $930 vs $900
  • AMJ $930 vs $900
  • JAS  $940 vs $915
  • OND $930 vs $900
  • PALM Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3898 (+14)
  • H 3914 / L 3840
  • Vol :  72,480
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 865 vs
  • Mar 865 vs 
  • Amj 840 vs 830 
  • Jas 817.5 vs 810 
  • Ond 815 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Mar 862.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 737.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3950
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 262 (pk) / 263 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb/Mar 1000
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb/Mar 940
  • Rbdpks : Feb/Mar 1110
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4747 (+57)
  • May 4793 (+53)
  • Jul 4807 (+43)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 820 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 815 vs —
  • Spain indicated for FM around USD 920 vs 900
  • Italy indicated for FM around USD 915 vs —
  • Turkish ports are indicated around USD 855 vs —
  • CIF Lw India for pricing near by around USD 925 vs900 and Forward may be USD 920 for Russian origin
  • Currency INR 83.00, RM 4.76, Euro 1.0764, and Rub 91.24


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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