Athena Market Buzz

1530 05022024 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


It touched RM 4000 returned after seeing some consolidation and after making lows around RM 3745 we have trading around RM 3800.


MDEX opened low and after showing not so impressive strength we saw short covering around RM 3750 which helped the market to recover post lunch at trade over RM 3800. MDEX is clearly showing signs of strength and the weakness is getting spilled into palm from macro as well as rival oils specially soybean oil. Palm as mentioned before becomes excellent buy between RM 3450-3550 and we will request all the readers not to make shorts at current levels and become a buyer around RM 3650. As market corrects towards important support of RM 3450 one should scale up buying keeping the stop loss at MR 3375. With India still consuming good amounts of oil we can expect palm to remain range bound and may even attempt to break RM 4000 level. Next rally in palm will take the MDEX over to RM 4250 which is where we would request our readers to exit longs and even create shorts . With enough oil available for food , Energy prices remain under check, Winter months going away increasing the consumption in FOOD and Fuel we can expect PALM to continue to play the range. Panic has no room in current markets and only panic sellers create new lows and panic buyers create fresh highs. India is getting offered ROL around USD 880 may be to do USD 870, while local market is still trading at a disparity of INR 2500 PMT or USD 30 PMT. Over all current ROL prices are competing with crude sunflower oil but due to supply disruptions we can see more and more traders switching to Palm removing the disparity. 


CBOT bean complex is trading at its yearly lows and funds are scarily short this market. We can sense that the levels are already too low and we would not expect funds to add to shorts as slight change in mood can result in multi day highs which could give a blow to their existing MTM. Beans are trading just around 12.00, Bean oil is trading not very far from crucial support of 44.50  and this should result is technical buying opportunity. We never expected CBOT to correct below 47.50 but if it did we expected basis to firm up and for briefly it did but failed to hold the levels. Basis after making highs of -750 also corrected and today the sellers are back at -820 pushing the FOB prices lower around USD 810-815. CNF India most of near by position is offered around USD 890 and for MJJ we hear sellers around USD 870. We have been suggesting readers to wait for prices to correct below USD 900 to cover their mJJ needs and now is the time when they can start covering some of their needs. Since the basis has not improved , FED is taking some more time to reduce interest rates, we can request readers to look to buy only 20% of their needs and aim lower levels. Some ownership at current prices will always come handy when shorts will get squeezed specially funds who are already in oversold situation. Locally in India soybean seeds are getting sold below MSP around INR 43000/- ex market yards and about INR 45,000 plant delivery while refine oil continues to trade at inr 870-880. Most of the stockiest are making a loss and selling their longs. We have been suggesting from October 2023 that this year will not be great for early investors but one can look to make longs starting April 2024. 


Black Sea sunflower oil is also under pressure of Soya and indications to Spain for FM are around 910 and asking for some carry for AMJ. Ukraine and Russia conflict is not ending and crushers are trying to keep most of sunseeds home and export as much sunflower oil as possible. Sunflower oil should trade at par with bean oil if it needs to be exported in volumes but with insurance going higher and freights going up we see a lot of pressure on flat prices. CPT Ukraine sunflower oil is trading around USD 760/770, while FOB prices are still around USD 800 for most positions. Egypt will tender for new requirements, India continue to consume about 250,000 mt of sunflower oil and China can also come back to buy some more which may keep sunflower oil a slight premium over soybean oil at least for MJJ. We will repeat that prices below USD 900 are attractive for sunflower oil and one can make longs between USD 850-900 for some part of their requirements. Indians should keep spot longs and buy replacements as they can get stuck due to Red Sea issues.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -820/-900
  • Mar 24 -820/-900
  • Apr 24 -850/-1010
  • MJJ 24 -900/-1040
  • AS 24  ??/-950
  • OND ??/-880
  • Brazil SBO
  • Feb 24 ?? /-950
  • Mar 24 -800/-950
  • Apr 24 -850/-1010
  • MJJ 24 -900/ ??
  • AS 24  ??/-950
  • 6 ports Europe Mar   $925 vs $905 
  • AMJ  $920 vs $905
  • JAS   $925 vs $915
  • OND  $920 vs $900
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3799 (+35)
  • H 3809 / L 3745
  • Vol :  52,577
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 850 vs
  • Mar 850 vs 
  • Amj 825 vs 817.5 
  • Jas 802.5 vs 797.5 
  • Ond 800 vs 790
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 850 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 720 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3880
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 253 (pk) / 254 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 970
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 910
  • Rbdpks : Feb 1080
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4493 (+20)
  • May 4544 (+22)
  • Jul 4573 (+23)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7054 (-26)
  • Sep 6690 (-26)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 810 vs 790
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated for FM around USD 910 vs 880
  • Italy indicated for FM around USD 900 vs —
  • Turkish ports are indicated around USD 845 vs —
  • CIF Lw India for pricing near by around USD 915 vs — and Forward may be USD 905 for Russian origin
  • Currency INR 83.02, RM 4.74, Euro 1.0749, and Rub 1.077


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)



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