AthenaMarket Buzz

1530 11012024 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Morning, 


Mdex opened with a modest uptick and went on to achieve new highs, settling at Feb 3780 +38 and March +40 at RM 3797 during lunch. The day predominantly maintained these levels, attempting a breakout over RM 3800 several times. Lower palm stocks are generating a highly bullish sentiment for palm, reinforcing the expectation of soon reaching RM 3850. Long positions are advised to exercise patience for liquidation between RM 3850-3950. The RSI has increased to 55%, indicating potential upward movement, especially with India expressing a demand for cost-effective oils, potentially fueling further rally. Soybean oil remains attractive for India, trading around USD 940-945, with continued interest from buyers at similar prices. This dynamic supports the upward movement of palm. Locally in India, recent trades were reported around INR 828-830 in Mangalore and Chennai, a range observed consistently. Although some old longs are looking to exit, the local market is anticipated to rally towards INR 85,000/- soon. Local buyers are encouraged to continue purchasing disparity cargo until achieving USD price parity of USD 900 on Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL). For importers, it is advised to consider booking profits once the current rally lasts till USD 920. On the downside, the bottom appears protected around RM 3450, and buyers are suggested to initiate longs between RM 3550-3450 for delivery in Feb-March.

CBOT soybean oil settled marginally lower, with March at -20 (48.25) and May at -29 (48.61), currently trading in positive territory at the time of this report. The strong support at CBOT 4750 is expected to lead to a rally towards 52.50 soon, reflecting overall positive sentiments. India's consistent preference for bean oil over sunflower oil contributes to the optimistic market outlook. Recent trades in India around 940 to 945 for February shipment and ongoing activity for March and April highlight the demand. Delays in sunflower oil shipments are prompting local markets to explore alternative oils. The upcoming USDA report is expected to provide further direction to an already bullish market. In the Indian market, Distillate Soybean Oil (DSBO) is trading at INR 820 and 830, while seed prices remain mostly unchanged. Traders are advised to consider long positions between 900 to 950 for nearby months, with a recommendation to wait for prices to correct below 900 for forward months.

India has imported over 2.3 million MT of sunflower oil between April 2023 to December 2023, with expectations of an additional 750K in the months of JFM, totaling over 3 million MT. This substantial import volume amid war and logistical disruptions signals continued challenges this year. Sunflower oil prices are finding support with soybean oil prices, despite a reduced spread between the two. Despite reduced spreads, Indian monthly consumption is projected to exceed 250K MT. Black Sea sunflower oil remains mostly unchanged, while prices in Europe are approximately USD 10 firmer on the offer. European sellers at 6 ports are asking USD 955 for forward months, with best buyers at USD 920. In Turkey, buyers are looking to price around USD 865, while sellers are reluctant below USD 890. Confusion prevails in India with old cargoes not shipped, and logistics issues unresolved. Prompt cargoes are offered at USD 930, while no firm indications exist for forward months.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -940H/-980H
  • Mch 24 -980/-1080
  • MJJ 24 -1100/-1180
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -/-1000
  • Mch 24 -900/-1000
  • AMJ 24 -1050/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe Feb - vs 920
  • FM 955 vs 930
  • AMJ 950 vs 920
  • JAS 965 vs 925
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Mar 3796 (+39)
  • H 3815 / L 3768
  • Vol :  95,307
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Jan 855 vs
  • Fm 855 vs
  • Amj 845 vs 837.5
  • Jas 825 vs 817.5
  • Ond 820 vs 810
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 842.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 720 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3800
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 243 (pk) / 244 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan 965
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan 905
  • Rbdpks : Jan 1100
  • Sbo : 
  • Jan 4786 (unch)
  • Mar 4878 (+53)
  • May 4909 (+48)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7256 (+98)
  • Sep 7018 (+58)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 800 vs 770
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 790 vs —
  • Spain indicated JF USD 935 vs 910
  • Italy indicated  JF 930 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 935 vs 915
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 890 vs 865
  • Currency INR 82.97, RM 4.64, Rub 88.70 and Euro 1.0981

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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