Athena Market Buzz

1430 09012024 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday  


Good Morning, 


Mdex commenced the day without much change, and by lunch, it exhibited marginal gains, with Feb at RM 3700 +17 and March at RM 3712 +19. Notably, Mdex briefly touched RM 3647 yesterday but rebounded to achieve an intraday high of RM 3703. Today, it has already reached a high of RM 3722, establishing a pattern of daily new highs. The expected levels of MR 3550-3450 for making longs may take some time to materialise due to reduced production in Malaysia and logistical challenges caused by rains in Indonesia. Reports indicate delayed vessels awaiting loading for oil supply to destinations like China and India, where shipments of rival sunflower oil are also facing delays. Despite the RSI remaining weak at 44%, there is optimism that the rebound will persist, possibly crossing the RM 3800 mark on Mdex this week. However, crossing this threshold may trigger selling pressure in the form of long liquidation. ROL to India was suggested around USD 860 but desperate local sellers are indicating INR 81,500/-, creating a disparity of over USD 30 per metric ton. The expectation is for Mdex to remain firm, with prices moving towards USD 860 or higher, subsequently firming up the local market to INR 83,000/- or higher. Reiterating that palm becomes attractive for long positions between RM 3450-3550 or USD 800-820 CNF India, profit-taking can be considered between RM 3850-3950 (roughly USD 870 in India). For short selling, one should wait for prices to cross RM 4250 or USD 900 CNF India.

CBOT bean oil exhibited volatility, registering triple-digit losses but managing to recover and settle for Jan at +27, reaching 47.44, and Feb at +18, reaching 47.81. The defense of the 47.50 level is notable, with correction factors like weather, oversupply, and lack of demand being absorbed through buying. The basis firmed up slightly, resulting in most of the flat price ranging between 850-840 FOB. CNF India indications for bean oil are around USD 935, with some trades at USD 925 yesterday. Locally, beans are trading around the Minimum Support Price (MSP), and degum oils are at 845-850, while refined oil is trading around INR 885-895, depending on the location. In the Western Central Interior (WCI), more traders are expected to buy soybean oil as the spread between Bean oil and sunflower oil has reduced to just USD 10. Delays in sunflower oil vessels are creating a gap between shipment and actual arrival months. Sellers of bean oil are cautious about selling at lower prices, considering the higher costs of rival oils. MJJ bean oil buyers in India are seeking prices below USD 900, while offers are around USD 915. CBOT finds support at 47.50, and positive momentum is expected this week, pushing prices towards 49.50.

Sunflower oil is pricing itself relatively higher as the spread between Sunflower oil and bean oil has nearly disappeared. Reports suggest rape seed oil business to Spain at USD 910, and offers to Rotterdam for rape oil are already at USD 930, aligning more closely with sunflower oil prices. However, considering the significant exports from Ukraine between the months of OND, approximately 2 million MT of sunflower oil has already been exported. Despite the balance found by Ukraine producers and traders amidst war, price pressure persists as they aim to export over 4 million more MT of sunflower oil. CNF India offers for sunflower oil are around USD 920-925, but buyers are hesitant to pay over USD 900. In the local market, prices are still trading below replacement, contributing to a slower business pace. Reiterating that prices of sunflower oil will be attractive at USD 890 or below for FMA, and higher prices on sunflower oil should be avoided.



  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -900H/-980H
  • Mch 24 -940/-1050
  • MJJ 24 -1020/-1150
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -850/-1000
  • Feb 24 -800/-980
  • Mch 24 -850/-980
  • AMJ 24 -1020/-1150
  • 6 ports Europe FM 945 vs 915
  • AMJ 935 vs 910
  • JAS 950 vs 922.5
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Mar 3712 (+19)
  • H 3722 / L 3632
  • Vol :  39,058
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Jan 835 vs
  • Fm 832.5 vs
  • Amj 825 vs 820
  • Jas 815 vs 810
  • Ond 815 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 830 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 710 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3730
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan 935
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan 890
  • Rbdpks : Jan 1085
  • Sbo : 
  • Jan 4744 (unch)
  • Mar 4795 (+14)
  • May 4833 (+15)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7072 (+38)
  • Sep 6908 (+48)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 790 vs 760
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 780 vs —
  • Spain indicated JF USD 925 vs 890
  • Italy indicated  JF 920 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 925 vs 900
  • Turkey mersin indications around USD 885 vs 845
  • Currency INR 83.11, RM 4.64, Rub 91.04 and Euro 1.0941

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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