Athena Market Buzz

1140 19012024 Athena Market Buzz Friday

Good Morning,


Will MDEX touch RM 4000 today or next week ? 

Palm opened firm and after making days high for at RM 3950 for April it settled for lunch at RM 3916+21. We expect palm to rally as the fundamentals are strong, short supply , bio fuel mandate , ramadan demand and Chinese new year demand all will help the prices to remain firm on other hand good soybean seed crop and sunflower seed will keep the top limited to RM 4450. We will repeat that one can sell their longs and book profit in current rally but we strictly advise against making any shorts. In order to make short one should wait for prices to rally beyond RM 4250 and sell in the range of RM 4250-4450. In order to make longs after you have liquidated the positions at current levels one should buy between RM 3750-3650 and for making a long term long one can easy wait for prices to fall  between RM 3450-3550. RM 3450 being very strong support and RM 4450 being a very strong resistance at least till the macro does not change or we see tensions escalating between other countries. Pakistan retaliated by striking Iran and though we expect no more escalation but if someone thing more happens here India will have supply issues specially in soft oils and they will look more towards palm. India today is indicated around USD 930 for CPO and USD 910 for ROL with buyers looking to pay USD 890. Locally in India we are seeing demand between INR 850 which back to back equates to USD 880 maintaining a disparity of USD 20 . Replacement for forward months are at even money hence palm will help lift the sentiments in all other oils including Soybean oil. 


CBOT Soybean future took a plunge last night hitting their lowest levels in last 3 years and this presented an opportunity for short covering which resulted in a rebound. Bean oil too dipped lower but managed to recover only to settle marginally lower. May -5 at 48.01 and July -6 at 48.14 which at the time of writing this report is trading May 47.88 -13 and July 48.01 -11. With increased tensions around the world food supply can become an issue and since the prices on bean oil are at their lowest it presents excellent opportunity to make longs. Indians were very keen to buy bean oil MJJ at USD 880 last night however the sharpest offer last night was only at USD 895. We will repeat that CBOT looks to find strong support at 47.50 and if the prices correct below 47.50 it will only result in basis firming up equally hence we dont see any harm in making flat price longs at current levels. Prices below USD 900 to USD 850 should be used to make longs for months  MJJ but the offers today starts again at USD 910 which may not see desired interest. Near by bean oil price have also firmed with feb at USD 940 and March at 925. Locally in India the prices of Degum are slightly firming and more traders have washed out their palm to switch to bean oil. WCI can switch from Palm to soya but ECI will continue to import palms and sunflower oil. At current rate degum makes sense even for biofuel hence we do see prices bottoming out. We will strictly advise against shorting the current market. 


Black Sea Ukraine sunflower oil is most stable oil with price mostly remaining unchanged even in volatility. We see indicative offers for near by oil around USD 950 and forward months between USD 930-940 depending on origin. Sunflower oil logistically will find lot of challenges to reach India hence one should not hesitate in making local longs. Understand good volumes of spot sunflower oil traded in India with prices between INR 860-865 which is today offered between INR 870. Spot cargo or afloat parcels can trade ECI India at USD 940 and forward buyers are looking to pay USD 920 say for Jan shipment or early Feb. Egypt tendered for veg oil arrival Feb -march 2024 was mostly aware to Sunflower oil at USD 900 PMT. Understand about 47.500 mt of sunflower oil traded. Europe too is looking to buy some sunflower oil now around USD 920 but best offers near by are around USD 940. Indians should wait for MJJ as bean oil is still the cheapest and if the prices fall below USD 900 then should immediately book their  requirement for AMJ. 


  • *SOYOIL Basis/Fob:*
  • *ARGENTINA-*
  • Feb-880/-970(Fob Slr 855.83$/Byr 835.98)-2$
  • Mar-900/-1060(851.42/816.14)+3
  • May-1050/-1140(826.95/807.10)-2
  • JJ-1050/-1140(829.891/809.97)
  • *BRAZIL-*
  • Feb-850/-1000(862.44/?)-2
  • Mar-920/NB(847.00/NB)-6
  • Apr-920/-1030(855.61/831.35)+5
  • May NS/-1200(NS/793.88)
  • JJ-1050/NB
  • *USGulf:*
  • Feb+42(444.56)+3
  • Mar+38(440.15)+10
  • AM+24(410.61)-6
  • JJ+15(412.70)+2
  • 6 ports Europe yesterdays close AMJ 945 vs 935
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3916 (+21)
  • H 3950 / L 3878
  • Vol :  34,880
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Fm 875 vs 
  • Amj 857.5 vs 852.5
  • Jas 827.5 vs 817.5
  • Ond 820 vs 805
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 860 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 720 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3980
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan/Feb 250 (pk) / 252 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan/Feb 980
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan/Feb 925
  • Rbdpks : Jan/Feb 1100
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4765 (+3)
  • May 4810 (+9)
  • Jul 4825 (+11)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7514 (+168)
  • Sep 7042 (+116)
  • Rm 4.715
  • Crude : 74.01
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 845 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 840 vs —
  • Romania FOB USD 860 vs 800
  • Spain indicated JF USD 940 vs 920
  • Italy indicated  JF 935 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 950 vs 920
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 910 vs 885
  • Currency INR 83.12, RM 4.71, Rub 88.90 and Euro 1.0878

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)








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