Athena Market Buzz

1530 05012024 Athena Market Buzz Friday 

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Good Morning, 


Mdex began the day on a positive note, and as of lunchtime, we maintained a marginal upward trend with Feb at +13, reaching RM 3670, and March at RM 3672 +14. As of the latest update, the market is trading approximately 0.6% higher, with Feb at +25 (RM 3678) and March at +27 (RM 3684). As highlighted previously, the range of RM 3450 - 3550 remains particularly attractive for Palm, and traders are encouraged to consider long positions within this range. FOB markets are experiencing tight conditions, with vessels waiting up to 10 days for cargo procurement. The supportive situation for palm remains, and there are no significant fundamental changes anticipated in palm prices. Winters have commenced in India, and China is entering a festive season, expected to boost overall consumption and subsequently, demand. Reports indicate desperate sellers marking Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) to India at USD 837.50, followed by an ask for USD 855 to USD 850. Locally, ROL is in demand, with buyers seeking around INR 81,500, while sellers are maintaining their levels at INR 82,500 for the time being. Southern markets are displaying heightened activity in palm, and supportive price action is anticipated, given the current price disparities. Traders are advised to continue making long positions and exit only when prices touch RM 3850 to 3950.

CBOT bean oil experienced mostly narrow trading, with a small correction observed for March at -44 (48.16) and May at -43 (48.56) last night. As of the current report, bean oil is trading marginally higher. Support for bean oil is expected around 47.50, with increasing demand in destination countries such as India and China. The narrowed spread between Sunflower oil and Soybean oil is influencing buyers to prefer soybean oil. The basis has remained largely unchanged, pushing the flat price about 5 points lower. CNF India offers for bean oil for January are around 930, and similar trades can be considered for February. The Indian crush industry is facing losses, as there is no significant meal demand, and duty-free imported Edible oil is limiting the rally in softs. Soybean seed prices in India are mostly trading around the Minimum Support Price (MSP), and stability is expected in the coming months. Bean oil in India is trading around INR 840, while refined oil in the hinterland is holding steady at INR 87,000. It is reiterated that if MJJ bean oil trades below USD 800 on FOB, one should not hesitate to make long positions, and on CNF basis, offers below USD 900 should be sought.

Sunflower oil trade to India occurred at volumes around USD 900, influenced by vessel delays and farmers' reluctance to sell. Transportation challenges from the Red Sea to India are also contributing to the situation. Buyers in India are advised against going short for the near term, and there is no rush to sell forward months. Traders are recommended to maintain long positions at current prices, even for AMJ, where prices are below USD 900. Sunflower oil is clearly a buy, and a short rally of USD 50 is anticipated in the coming weeks. Russia will be celebrating Christmas on the 7th of January, with traders expected to return on Monday. China is also anticipated to commence covering their festive needs from Monday. Containers of sunflower oil are currently offered to China around USD 900, with no significant demand. Romanian markets are indicated around USD 820, and offers from Egypt were approximately USD 880.

  • Argentina SBO
  • JF 24 -920/-1000
  • Mch 24 -950/-1080
  • MJJ 24 -1080/-1180
  • Brazil SBO
  • Feb 24 -/-900
  • Mch 24 -/-1000
  • Apr 24 -900/-1080
  • 6 ports Europe SFO FOB
  • Jan   950 vs -
  • Feb   950 vs 925
  • AMJ  935 vs 920 
  • JAS   945 vs 927,5
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Mar 3681 (+24)
  • H 3688 / L 3645
  • Vol :  58,390
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Jan 830
  • Fm 827.5 vs
  • Amj 825 vs 820
  • Jas 812.5 vs 807.5
  • Ond 812.5 vs
  •  
  • Rbdpo: -5
  •  
  • Strn: Jan 825 (deld)
  • Pfad: Jan 710 (deld)
  •  
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3720
  •  
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jan 238 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan 930
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan 885
  • Rbdpks : Jan 1080
  •  
  • Sbo :
  • Jan 4788 (unch)
  • Mar 4838 (+22)
  • May 4875 (+19)
  •  
  • Dce : 
  • May 7022 (+42)
  • Sep 6854 (+10)
  • Rm 4.652
  • Crude : 72.94
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 790 vs 770
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 780 vs —
  • Spain indicated JF USD 910 vs 890
  • Italy indicated  JF 905 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 905 vs —
  • Turkey mersin indications around USD 865 vs 845
  • Currency INR 83.15, RM 4.65, Rub 91.022 and Euro 1.0907

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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