Athena Market Buzz

1430 24012024 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday  


It touched RM 4000 already will it be too soon to ask RM 4250.


Mdex opened unchanged, and during a quiet midday session, the market remained subdued, with March settling +8 at 3968 and April +7 at RM 3955. Post-lunch, increased fund activity led to a rally, particularly for March and an anticipated test of resistance for April. Bullish palm fundamentals are expected to drive momentum in other oils. Heavy rains are disrupting harvests, tightening palm supply, and leaving room for further upside movement. Traders are advised to use current prices to book profits in long positions, refraining from hasty short positions. Shorts can be considered once prices move beyond RM 4250 to 4450. On the downside, a correction below 3450 in the next three months is unlikely, and dips below RM 3750 should be owned. Short covering can be executed, and additional long positions can be considered if prices trade between RM 3450-3550. CNF India is reported to trade around 895/897, with sellers asking for ROL 910 to execute USD 900 transactions for small volumes. Locally in India, ROL prices continue to trade at a disparity of at least USD 30 PMT. Sellers in India are holding to a price of INR 850, resulting in limited business. If Mdex surpasses RM 4000, local players' interest is expected to spike, but ample cargo availability in India is keeping prices under pressure. Traders are advised not to adopt a bearish stance in India and to cover the local disparity cargo, available at the USD equivalent of 870.

CBOT bean oil, after rebounding from lows, still experiences reasonable demand and settles mostly unchanged. Palm's influence on prices is upward, and with new biofuel mandates, increased soybean oil consumption in non-food sectors is expected. Degum prices are now on par with sunflower oil and CPO in India. Forward months show good interest in degum oil, with trades planning to buy bean oil and sell CPO. At current levels in May at 48.82, CBOT appears attractive. The previously mentioned support at 47.50 should sustain, and business may occur up to 52.50. The rally is anticipated, and with a mostly unchanged basis, CNF offers to India may rise towards the 1100 mark from the current USD 940-945. Downside protection is in place for nearby cargo, and if there's a correction for MJJ, with prices trading below USD 900, buyers are suggested to initiate long positions. Locally in India, refined oil prices are at INR 910, while solvent oils continue to trade between INR 850-860.

Black Sea sunflower oil sellers are occupied with executing old contracts, and despite healthy shipments, a significant amount of cargo will arrive in India by March 2024. February, in particular, may be tight, keeping local India prices higher. Buyers are prepared to pay over USD 940 for spot cargoes. Current offers to India range between USD 930-940, and for spot pricing, they are willing to consider 950. Egypt is expected to tender more oil, and India remains mostly uncovered for March shipments and onwards, increasing demand to 300,000 mt a month. Due to logistical issues and potential tension escalation, there will likely be a premium for spot cargo. Maintaining near-term long positions is recommended, while for MJJ, buyers can wait for offers below USD 900. In 6 European ports, CIF offers to Spain are matching USD 950, and small volumes to Spain are indicated around USD 940. Turkey's indications range between USD 900-890 for most ports, and with India resuming purchases, Turkish prices are expected to rise above USD 940 soon. Expect CNF India to reach the USD 1000 mark, where buyers are advised to liquidate their long positions.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb -880H/-960H
  • Mch -910/-1010
  • MJJ -1050/-1150
  • Brazil SBO
  • Feb -800/-1000
  • Mch -920/-1000
  • Apr -970/-1070
  • MJJ ??/-1100
  • 6 ports Europe Mar  $950 vs -
  • AMJ $950 vs $925 
  • JAS  $960 vs $935 
  • OND $955 vs $925
  • Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3955 (+7)
  • H 3985 / L 3937
  • Vol :  37,056
  •  
  • Oln 
  • Feb 880 vs
  • Fm 880 vs 
  • Amj 862.5 vs 857.5
  • Jas 835 vs 827.5
  • Ond 822.5 vs 812.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 867.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 730 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 4000
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Feb 251 (pk) / 253 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 975
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 920
  • Rbdpks : Feb 1095
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4812 (-9)
  • May 4859 (-10)
  • Jul 4876 (-7)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7486 (+16)
  • Sep 7086 (+54)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 855 vs 820
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 850 vs —
  • Romania FOB USD 875 vs 800
  • Spain indicated JF USD 945 vs 920
  • Italy indicated  JF 940 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 950 vs 920
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 900 vs 885
  • Currency INR 83.10, RM 4.72, Rub 88.21 and Euro 1.08

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

  1430 08072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY HBDAARI Palm Oil Market : The palm oil market is very slow today in India as MDEX is closed and traders are not getting any direction. Such days are important as most of the consolidation happens during a holiday, followed by short covering on the opening day. Our view remains unchanged: as the market progresses towards RM 4150 and above, we advise our traders to start making small shorts, increasing them once we test RM 4450, while buying during corrections towards RM 3750. Production is decreasing, India is entering the festive season, and demand for edible vegetable oil is increasing, which will provide enough support. Bearish traders are looking at crude oil prices, hoping that softer crude could put pressure on vegetable oil, but we expect crude to remain stable and slowly inch higher towards 100 by the end of this year when the requirement for heating oil increases. In India, offers are mostly unchanged from Friday, and there are n...
Read more

ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1600 10062024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY Good Morning, Congratulations to Team India for their victory against Pakistan in the ICC T-20 World Cup, and to the people of India for reelecting Shri Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. MDEX opened lower, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3952, down 23 points. At the time of writing, August has further declined to RM 3926, down 49 points. With it being Monday, we expect the slow trade to continue, overlooking the weakness in bean oil and increased stock figures. MPOB data shows opening stocks at 1.74 million MT, with production up by 13.48% and end stocks up by 0.5%. Despite the good discount of palm oil over other soft oils, traders expected higher export numbers, leading to the sell-off. The pace of export is good, and we can expect stock reduction by the end of the month, which will adjust the market higher. The RSI in MDEX is just over 50%, keeping the view mostly neutral, and we can expect some more selling pressure as the day progresses....
Read more